Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL)

for Friday, 23 October 2009 [6:42 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 21 2009):

Continuing issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 027
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 23 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #036
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) sill holding on as it remains almost stationary near the coast of Cagayan. Inner rainbands spreading across Cagayan, Northern Isabela & Batanes.

*Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to drift westward slowly closer to the Northern Coast of Cagayan...and weaken into a Tropical Storm. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT still at a snail-pace motion as it begins turning WNW to NW as it passes off the northern coast of Cagayan on Monday (Oct 26) and over the Balintang Channel-Calayan Island Area on Tuesday through Wednesday (Oct 27-28). *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly North to NNE and recurve towards Southern Japan, away from Extreme Northern Luzon. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high, as almost all of the various numerical guidance models depicts this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has continued to lose organization as strong dry air from the west affects the system. The core remains at sea with its inner rainbands now spreading across Batanes, Cagayan & Isabela. Light to moderate rains w/ tropical storm force winds not exceeding 85 kph can be expected along these bands. While its outer rainbands continues to affect the rest of Northern Luzon - where overcast skies along w/ light passing rains & gale-force winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 300 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Fri October 23 2009
Location of Eye: 18.8º N Lat 123.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 215 km (115 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 230 km (125 nm) ESE of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 240 km (130 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 255 km (137 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 325 km (175 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 6: 535 km (290 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 580 km (313 nm) North of Naga City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Cagayan's Northern Coast
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 ft (10.0 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Fri Oct 23
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Fri Oct 23
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect: BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, APAYAO, & ILOCOS NORTE.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ILOCOS SUR, KALINGA, ISABELA, ABRA, & MT. PROVINCE.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: LA UNION, BENGUET, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO & NORTHERN AURORA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more.

JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 23 OCTOBER: 18.6N 122.9E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / W @ 02 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 24 OCTOBER: 18.6N 122.6E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / W @ 02 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 25 OCTOBER: 18.6N 122.2E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / W @ 02 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 26 OCTOBER: 18.7N 121.9E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / NW @ 02 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 23 OCTOBER POSITION: 18.7N 123.5E.
*RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM LOSING ORGANIZATION AND
TRACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. ALSO EVIDENT IS A GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW PATTERN. A 221758Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND
BANDING THAT IS WEAKER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM
IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM
IS SLOWING AS THERE IS NO CLEAR INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM MOTION.
CURRENT SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ERODING THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM, AND PRESUMABLY ERODING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TYPHOON
ITSELF. AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ERODES, THE SYSTEM WILL COME MORE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS ERRATIC, WHICH LEAVES UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM COULD START TO STEER POLEWARD EARLIER THAN
TAU 72. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY ALONG
WITH INTERACTION WITH LAND TO THE SOUTH. POSITION IS BASED ON
POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND AMSR-E IMAGERY. INTENSITY IS BASED ON
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES...(more)

>> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 23 OCTOBER: 18.6N 122.9E / WEST Slowly / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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