Monday, October 12, 2009

TS PARMA (PEPENG) - Update #037

 


for Monday, 12 October 2009 [6:33 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun October 11 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS PARMA (PEPENG).


PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 037

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Mon 12 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #057
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm PARMA (PEPENG) loses strength as it approaches Hainan Island...Landfall expected today.

    *Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to make landfall over Hainan Island this afternoon and will weaken into a TD. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows PARMA moving into the Gulf of Tonkin tomorrow...and dissipating over Vietnam on Wednesday Oct 14.

    + Effects: PARMA's circulation has shrunked w/ its rainbands just affecting Hainan Island and portions of Western Guangdong. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (heavy rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Storm NEPARTAK [21W] continues to gain intensity while moving slowly NE across the Western Pacific Ocean.
    Click here to view the latest T2K advisory.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon October 12 2009
    Location of Center: 19.0º N Lat 111.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) ESE of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
    Distance 2: 145 km (78 nm) SSE of Haikou, Hainan Is.
    Distance 3: 155 km (83 nm) ESE of Danzhou, Hainan Is.
    Distance 4: 190 km (103 nm) NE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
    Distance 5: 485 km (262 nm) SW of Hong Kong
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Hainan Island
    Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Mon Oct 12
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 AM Mon Oct 12
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Oct 12
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 01
    NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 12 OCTOBER: 18.8N 110.2E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 13 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 13 OCTOBER: 19.1N 108.8E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / WNW @ 19 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 14 OCTOBER: 19.8N 104.9E / 35-55KPH (TD) / - @ -- KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 12 OCTOBER POSITION: 18.4N 111.6E.
    *ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
    ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY IS INTERPOLATED BETWEEN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES
    (T3.O), RJTD (T2.0) AND PGTW (T2.O). TS PARMA IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    STEERING RIDGE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL
    CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN HAINAN
    BY TAU 12, EXIT THE ISLAND BY TAU 24, THEN MAKE LANDFALL IN VIETNAM,
    SOUTH OF HANOI, AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS
    ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS ON THE RIGHT OF THE MAIN
    PACK AND GFDN ON THE FAR LEFT...
    (
    more)

    >> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms)Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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