Monday, October 05, 2009

TS PARMA (PEPENG) - Update #022

 


for Monday, 05 October 2009 [1:15 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon October 05 2009):

SMS updates returns back to 6-hrly updates...currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS PARMA (PEPENG).


PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Mon 05 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #030
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm PARMA (PEPENG) barely moving near the coast of Ilocos Norte...may drift towards the south as interaction with Super Typhoon MELOR (QUEDAN) begins...may again pose a threat to Luzon in the coming days.

    *Residents and visitors along Luzon, Southern China & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to remain quasi-stationary over the South China Sea NW of Luzon for the next 2 to 3 days as it interacts with Super Typhoon MELOR (QUEDAN). The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA SSW to SW-ward across the South China Sea decreasing the threat to Western Luzon. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's also a possibility that PARMA and MELOR shall be both into Direct Cyclone Interaction (DCI) (aka. Fujiwhara Effect)...where MELOR recurves to the NE and PARMA follows suit. This scenaro remains least possible forecast route at this time.

    + Effects: PARMA's main circulation remains weak...Its core (eye & eyewall) remains about 230km. from the coast of Ilocos Norte...Stormy conditions w/ winds not exceeding 100 kph can still be expected along Ilocos Norte...while its inner (rain) bands spreading across Ilocos Sur, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Calayan Island Group, and Western Cagayan - where stormy conditions w/ winds not exceeding 75 kph can be expected today. Central Luzon and rest of Northern Luzon will remain under PARMA's outer (feeder) bands), where light to moderate rains w/ winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northwestern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Super Typhoon MELOR (20W) approaching PAR, expected to enter this afternoon.
    Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

    Kindly click the cool
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun October 04 2009
    Location of Center: 20.1º N Lat 119.4º E Lon
    Distance 1: 245 km (133 nm) NNW of Laoag City
    Distance 2: 275 km (148 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
    Distance 3: 295 km (160 nm) SSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
    Distance 4: 640 km (345 nm) NNW of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    100 kph (55 kts) near the eye
    Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: Quasi-Stationary
    Projected Area of Impact: South China Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
    T2K TrackMap #011 (for Public): 12 PM PST Mon Oct 05
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    8 AM Mon Oct 5
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Mon Oct 4
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image
    NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
    In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE.

    The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, APAYAO, BATANES GROUP, NORTHERN CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLAND GROUP.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 19.9N 119.2E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / SSW @ 02 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 06 OCTOBER: 19.8N 119.1E / 110-145 KPH (TS) / SSW @ 02 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 07 OCTOBER: 19.4N 118.9E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / SSW @ 04 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 08 OCTOBER: 18.8N 118.6E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / SSW @ 05 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 05 OCTOBER POSITION: 20.0N 119.3E.
    *RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP DEEP
    CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH WEAK BANDING
    WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING
    ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
    PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND SLOWLY
    ACCELERATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 72...
    (
    more)

    >> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms)Name contributed by: Macau, China.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

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    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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