for Monday, 05 October 2009 [1:15 PM PST]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon October 05 2009):
SMS updates returns back to 6-hrly updates...currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS PARMA (PEPENG).
PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph
TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Mon 05 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #030
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm PARMA (PEPENG) barely moving near the coast of Ilocos Norte...may drift towards the south as interaction with Super Typhoon MELOR (QUEDAN) begins...may again pose a threat to Luzon in the coming days.
*Residents and visitors along Luzon, Southern China & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to remain quasi-stationary over the South China Sea NW of Luzon for the next 2 to 3 days as it interacts with Super Typhoon MELOR (QUEDAN). The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA SSW to SW-ward across the South China Sea decreasing the threat to Western Luzon. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's also a possibility that PARMA and MELOR shall be both into Direct Cyclone Interaction (DCI) (aka. Fujiwhara Effect)...where MELOR recurves to the NE and PARMA follows suit. This scenaro remains least possible forecast route at this time.
+ Effects: PARMA's main circulation remains weak...Its core (eye & eyewall) remains about 230km. from the coast of Ilocos Norte...Stormy conditions w/ winds not exceeding 100 kph can still be expected along Ilocos Norte...while its inner (rain) bands spreading across Ilocos Sur, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Calayan Island Group, and Western Cagayan - where stormy conditions w/ winds not exceeding 75 kph can be expected today. Central Luzon and rest of Northern Luzon will remain under PARMA's outer (feeder) bands), where light to moderate rains w/ winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northwestern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Super Typhoon MELOR (20W) approaching PAR, expected to enter this afternoon. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.
Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun October 04 2009
Location of Center: 20.1º N Lat 119.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km (133 nm) NNW of Laoag City
Distance 2: 275 km (148 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 295 km (160 nm) SSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 640 km (345 nm) NNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Projected Area of Impact: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
T2K TrackMap #011 (for Public): 12 PM PST Mon Oct 05
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Mon Oct 5
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Mon Oct 4
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE.
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, APAYAO, BATANES GROUP, NORTHERN CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLAND GROUP.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:
8 PM (12 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 19.9N 119.2E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / SSW @ 02 KPH
<<<Typhoon2000.
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on PEPENG!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon October 05 2009):
SMS updates returns back to 6-hrly updates...currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS PARMA (PEPENG).
PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph
TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Mon 05 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #030
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along Luzon, Southern China & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to remain quasi-stationary over the South China Sea NW of Luzon for the next 2 to 3 days as it interacts with Super Typhoon MELOR (QUEDAN). The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA SSW to SW-ward across the South China Sea decreasing the threat to Western Luzon. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's also a possibility that PARMA and MELOR shall be both into Direct Cyclone Interaction (DCI) (aka. Fujiwhara Effect)...where MELOR recurves to the NE and PARMA follows suit. This scenaro remains least possible forecast route at this time.
+ Effects: PARMA's main circulation remains weak...Its core (eye & eyewall) remains about 230km. from the coast of Ilocos Norte...Stormy conditions w/ winds not exceeding 100 kph can still be expected along Ilocos Norte...while its inner (rain) bands spreading across Ilocos Sur, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Calayan Island Group, and Western Cagayan - where stormy conditions w/ winds not exceeding 75 kph can be expected today. Central Luzon and rest of Northern Luzon will remain under PARMA's outer (feeder) bands), where light to moderate rains w/ winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...
(1) Super Typhoon MELOR (20W) approaching PAR, expected to enter this afternoon. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.
Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun October 04 2009
Location of Center: 20.1º N Lat 119.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km (133 nm) NNW of Laoag City
Distance 2: 275 km (148 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 295 km (160 nm) SSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 640 km (345 nm) NNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Projected Area of Impact: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
T2K TrackMap #011 (for Public): 12 PM PST Mon Oct 05
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Mon Oct 5
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Mon Oct 4
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE.
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, APAYAO, BATANES GROUP, NORTHERN CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLAND GROUP.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
8 PM (12 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 19.9N 119.2E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / SSW @ 02 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 06 OCTOBER: 19.8N 119.1E / 110-145 KPH (TS) / SSW @ 02 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 07 OCTOBER: 19.4N 118.9E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / SSW @ 04 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 08 OCTOBER: 18.8N 118.6E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / SSW @ 05 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 07 OCTOBER: 19.4N 118.9E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / SSW @ 04 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 08 OCTOBER: 18.8N 118.6E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / SSW @ 05 KPH
REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 05 OCTOBER POSITION: 20.0N 119.3E.
*RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH WEAK BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND SLOWLY
ACCELERATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 72...(more)
>> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms). Name contributed by: Macau, China.
____________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/ ) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)
> Image source: Wunderground.
NOTE:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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