Tuesday, October 13, 2009

TS PARMA (PEPENG) - Update #040

 


for Tuesday, 13 October 2009 [7:01 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun October 11 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS PARMA (PEPENG).


PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 040

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Tue 13 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #061
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm PARMA (PEPENG) now off the NW Coast of Hainan Island...heads for Northern Vietnam.

    *Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to turn Westward across the Gulf of Tonkin today before making its last and final landfall over Northern Vietnam tomorrow morning. It shall dissipate on Thursday October 15.

    + Effects: PARMA's circulation particularly its thick rainbands is now over the Gulf of Tonkin...these rainbands expected to reach Vietnam tonight or tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (heavy to extreme rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) organizing over the Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 10.0 lon 132.0E...or about 780 km ESE of Tacloban City, Leyte...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...moving WNW @ 15 kph towards Eastern Visayas. This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours.

    (2) Tropical Storm NEPARTAK [21W] accelerating NE across the Western Pacific Ocean. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Tue October 13 2009
    Location of Center: 19.9º N Lat 108.9º E Lon
    Distance 1: 85 km (45 nm) NW of Danzhou, Hainan Is.
    Distance 2: 90 km (48 nm) NNE of Dongfang, Hainan Is.
    Distance 3: 345 km (185 nm) ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Gulf of Tonkin-Vietnam
    Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Tue Oct 13
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 AM Tue Oct 13
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Tue Oct 13
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 01
    NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 13 OCTOBER: 20.0N 108.0E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / W @ 11 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 OCTOBER: 19.9N 106.7E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / W @ 07 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 15 OCTOBER: 19.5N 104.8E / 35-55KPH (LPA) / - @ -- KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 13 OCTOBER POSITION: 19.8N 109.0E.
    *THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    (LLCC) HAS MOVED AWAY FROM HAINAN ISLAND INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN.
    ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TS 19W HAS MAINTAINED AN
    ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WHILE OVER HAINAN. A 121218Z SSMIS
    MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
    LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
    QUADRANTS. THE 121050Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS SEVERAL UNFLAGGED 30
    KNOT WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF TS 19W, DESPITE THE LLCC
    REMAINING OVER HAINAN ISLAND FOR AROUND 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW
    AND ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY. PARMA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING THROUGH
    THE GULF OF TONKIN AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM. AS THE SYSTEM
    APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM AFTER TAU 24, TS 19W WILL GRADUALLY
    TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
    BUILDS EQUATORWARD.  THE FORECAST AND NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS ARE IN
    FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK...
    (
    more)

    >> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms)Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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