Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS HIGOS (PABLO) endangers Samar-Leyte-Bicol... [Update #002]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL STORM HIGOS [PABLO/21W/0817]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 30 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #003
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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HIGOS (PABLO) IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM...HEADING TOWARDS SAMAR-

LEYTE AND BICOL...HEAVY RAINS WITH FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED OVER
THE THREATENED AREAS.

*Interests along the Visayas and the Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of HIGOS
(PABLO).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HIGOS is expected to continue heading WNW the

next 2 days and may still continue to slightly intensify. The center

shall cross Leyte-Samar Area tonight..passing very close to Tacloban

City before 8 PM. It shall then be over Masbate Island early tomorrow

morning...moving across Sibuyan Sea, Romblon, Tablas Island tomorrw

afternoon. HIGOS shall move in between Mindoro and Batangas, passing

very close to Puerto Galera before midnight of Thursday...then exit

over the South China Sea on Thursday morning via the western coast of

Batangas early Thursday morning Oct 2. The 3 to 5-day long range fore-

cast shows HIGOS turning abruptly to the north...hugging the western

coast of Zambales and Pangasinan...shall be approaching the Southern

Coast of China (Eastern Guangdong) early Sunday morning.

+ EFFECTS: PABLO's circulation has become more compact..a sign that

the system is still intensifying. Its rainbands continues to spread

across Eastern Visayas and Northern Mindanao and is expected to reach

Bicol Region later tonight. Passing moderate to heavy squalls associa-

ted with its outer bands...with gusts not in excess of 65 kph...with

higher winds along the core can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumula-

tions of 200 up to 400 mm is possible along the core...with isolated

accumulations of 500 mm near the center of HIGOS especially along the

mountain slopes. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in

Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas

where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and

water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associa-

ted by this storm are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow.

Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek

evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides &

landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this

system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible

coastal Storm Surge flooding of up to 3 feet above normal tide levels

...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible

near the center of HIGOS. Very minimal damage is possible on this type

of storm surge.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch: Check out the latest advisories on another
TC over the South China Sea...Tropical Storm MEKKHALA (20W)...
approaching the coast of Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam.
Click here to open & visit the page.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) TUE 30 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 10.2º N...LONGITUDE 127.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 150 KM (80 NM) ENE OF SIARGAO ISLAND RESORT, PH
DISTANCE 2: 250 KM (135 NM) SE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH
DISTANCE 3: 270 KM (145 NM) SE OF TACLOBAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 490 KM (265 NM) SE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 5: 575 KM (310 NM) SE OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 989 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 33 KM/HR (18 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EASTERN VISAYAS-BICOL REGION
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 335 KM (180 NM)/SMALL/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME TUE SEP 30
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE & BILIRAN ISLAND.
#01 - SORSOGON, NORTHERN SAMAR, WESTERN SAMAR, SOUTHERN LEYTE, SIARGAO
ISLAND & DINAGAT ISLAND.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 10.9N 125.6E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 11.9N 123.8E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 13.9N 120.8E / 85-100 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 16.1N 119.0E / 95-120 KPH / N @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 9.9N 127.7E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) HIGOS (21W) HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. SHIP REPORTS IVO THE STORM INDICATE SURFACE WINDS OF 25
KNOTS AND SLP AS LOW AS 1007 ALONG THE PERIPHERY, WITH GREATER WINDS
BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER AS INDICATED BY THE 290927Z
QSCAT PASS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING AWAY FROM KOROR, AND WAS
UPGRADED TO TS STRENGTH BASED ON RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION
WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM EVIDENT IN BOTH ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY AND A 291105Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO INCREASED DUE
TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTION, COMING IN AT 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS LIMITED AND IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR
THE 29/06Z FORECAST, BUT HAS SINCE IMPROVED AND IS SURPRISINGLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR WHICH IS A
WESTERN OUTLIER...(more)

>> HIGOS, meaning: A Chamorro word for "Fig." Name contributed by:
United States of America.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 10.1N 128.3E / WNW @ 15 KPH / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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