Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon HAGUPIT (NINA) passing well south of HK... [Update #010]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #010

Name: TYPHOON HAGUPIT [NINA/18W/0814]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 23 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #019
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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THE QUICK-MOVING TYPHOON HAGUPIT (NINA) PASSING WELL SOUTH OF HONG KONG...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SQUALLS WITHIN ITS OUTER BANDS MOVING ACROSS HONG KONG

AND MACAU.

*Residents along Southern China especially Western Guangdong and Hainan Island should closely
monitor the progress of HAGUPIT (NINA).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HAGUPIT's core is expected to reach the coast of

Western Guangdong tonight. The 3-day medium-range forecast shows HAGUPIT

making landfall along the coast of Western Guangdong, near or over Zhejiang

City tomorrow morning and shall move overland across Western Guangdong to-

morrow afternoon until the evening. It shall dissipate along Northern Viet-

nam-China border on Friday Sep 26.

+ EFFECTS: HAGUPIT's large circulation continues to cover the South China

Sea...Outer bands spreading across the southern coast of China including

Hainan Island...Inner bands expected to reach western Guangdong tonight.

Passing moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall w/ winds not exceeding 60

km/hr will be expected along its outer bands with inceasing wind speeds

of up to 100 kph over the inner bands. Deteriorating weather conditions

can be expected across Southern China and Hainan Island later tonight as

the inner bands and core of the large typhoon approaches. 24-hr rainfall

accumulations of 200 up to 400 mm can be expected along the inner bands

and near its eye with isolated amounts reaching 500 mm. Residents in low-

lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possi-

le life-threatening flash floods & landslides due to the anticipated heavy

rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initia-

ed if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet

above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves

can be expected near and to the east of HAGUPIT's projected path particu-

arly on where the center will make landfall over Western Guangdong.

Extensive damage is possible on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The surge of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon
which has been enhanced by HAGUPIT (NINA) continues to affect Metro Manila,
Western & Southern Luzon including Bicol, Visayas, Palawan & Mindoro. This
wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-
off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding
60 km/hr.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: New & developing Tropical Disturbance 96W (LPA/
1008 MB) over the Caroline Islands, just NE of Yap Island, has started
rotating and is likely to become the next Tropical Cyclone within a day or
two...located near lat 10.3N lon 139.5E...about 490 km East of the Phili-
pine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...or about 1,545 km ESE of Borongan,
Eastern Samar, Philippines...packing sustained winds of 30 km/hr...moving
WNW slowly towards the Philippine Sea. Majority of the forecast models
shows it becoming a Tropical Storm heading towards the northern part of
the Philippine Sea this weekend. Watch for more updates on this new dis-
urbance. Kindly click the new & cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis,
issued every 12 PM PST (04 GMT)...it shows the current weather systems
across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) TUE 23 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.6º N...LONGITUDE 114.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 185 KM (100 NM) SSE OF HONG KONG, CHINA
DISTANCE 2: 205 KM (110 NM) SSE OF MACAU, CHINA
DISTANCE 3: 435 KM (235 NM) ESE OF ZHANJIANG, CHINA

DISTANCE 4: 450 KM (243 NM) ENE OF HAIKOU, HAINAN ISLAND
DISTANCE 5: 770 KM (415 NM) WEST OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 240 KM/HR (130 KTS)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 9-12 FEET (2.7-3.9 M)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 944 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 31 KM/HR (17 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: WESTERN GUANGDONG, CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 835 KM (450 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 27 FEET (8.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME TUE SEP 23
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NOW LOWERED

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 24 SEPTEMBER: 21.1N 112.0E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 26 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 24 SEPTEMBER: 21.8N 109.1E / 160-195 KPH / W @ 20 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 22.5N 104.6E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 23.0N 101.5E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 23 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 20.4N 115.5E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 18W HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY AFTER TRACKING
AWAY FROM NORTHERN LUZON. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS INTENSE, RENEWED EYEWALL CONVECTION WITH AN 20-NM RAGGED
EYE. THE 222156Z TMI 85/37 GHZ IMAGES SHOWED A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL
WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED WESTWARD UNDER ROBUST MID-
LEVEL STEERING. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS REMAINED EXCELLENT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE MODEL TRACKERS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...(more)

>> HAGUPIT {pronounced: ha~goo~peet}, meaning: Lash; flog.
Name contributed by: Philippines.

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PAGASA FINAL POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (20 GMT) 23 SEPTEMBER: 20.6N 115.2E / WNW @ 22 KPH / 160 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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