Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SINLAKU (MARCE)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008

Name: TYPHOON SINLAKU [MARCE/15W/0813]

Issued: 12:00 AM MANILA TIME (16:00 GMT) SAT 13 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #017
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON SINLAKU (MARCE) WEAKENS ANEW...SLOWLY TURNS MORE TO THE NORTH-

WEST, ENDANGERS NORTHERN TAIWAN INCLUDING TAIPEI...YAEYAMA ISLANDS

STILL UNDER THE NEW NORTHERN EYEWALL.

*Residents along Eastern Taiwan, Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Island Chain & the Southern Coast of
Kyushu in Japan should closely monitor the progress of SINLAKU.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SINLAKU's forecast has again changed, now bringing

the core near to the Northern Coast of Taiwan tomorrow evening. It is

expected to recurve sharply to the NE by tomorrow afternoon, regaining

possibly its 215-kph Category 4 winds. The 3 to 5-day long-range fore-

cast shows SINLAKU accelerating in a more ENE track beginning late

Sunday evening towards the Southern coast of Kyushu in Japan. The

typhoon is forecast to lose its strength, down to Category 1 - as it

approaches the Japanese Coast sometime Tuesday evening, Sep 16. *Alternate

Forecast Scenario: Some computer models are still showing a possibilty that SINLAKU may
track more WNW and make landfall over Northern Taiwan tomorrow. This scenario is likely if

the strong steering ridge to its east continues to extend to its north. Actually most of the Asian
agencies shows this scenario. kindly click here to view asian tracks.

+ EFFECTS: SINLAKU has completed its Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC)

with the diminishment of its inner eyewall, thus further re-strengthe-

ning of its wind speed is expected tomorrow, bringing it back to Cate-

gory 4 status. The new eye now measures approximately 110 km across.

The new northern eyewall (from the ERC) continues to lash the Yaeyama

Island Chain with very strong winds and heavy rainfall. Its inner

bands on the other hand has been covering the eastern part of Tai-

wan...while the outer bands remains across the rest of Taiwan. Cloudy

skies w/ at times moderate to heavy squalls with winds not exceeding

95 km/hr can be expected along its outer bands, with increasing winds

and more pronounce rainfall within the inner bands. 1-day rainfall

accumulations of up to 200-400 mm can be expected along these bands.

Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected along Northern Taiwan

as the core slowly approaches. Residents in low-lying areas & steep

slopes must seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods

& landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this

system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible

coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels

...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near

and to the north of SINLAKU's projected path particularly on where

the center passes by in Yaeyama Islands. Extensive damage is possible

on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to

be enhanced by TY SINLAKU (MARCE) across Western Luzon including Metro

Manila, Western Bicol, Southern Luzon, Mindoro, Western Visayas, & Pa-

lawan. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with

possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds

not exceeding 30 km/hr. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threa-

tening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano

slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected

areas. Meanwhile, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the whole Phili-

ppines. It shall bring widespread scattered rains and thunderstorms -
most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 PM MANILA TIME (15:00 GMT) 12 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 23.9º N...LONGITUDE 123.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 185 KM (100 NM) EAST OF HUALIEN CITY, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 2: 220 KM (120 NM) ESE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 405 KM (218 NM) NNE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 4: 545 KM (295 NM) SW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 185 KM/HR (100 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 230 KM/HR (125 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 956 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: YAEYAMA ISLANDS
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 32 FEET (9.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 PM MANILA TIME FRI SEP 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
LIVE RADAR: CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU, TAIWAN

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 AM (00 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 24.5N 122.9E / 205-250 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH

8 PM (12 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 25.4N 122.5E / 205-250 KPH / N @ 07 KPH

8 PM (12 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 27.2N 123.2E / 215-260 KPH / NNE @ 13 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 28.9N 126.0E / 160-195 KPH / NE @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 23.7N 123.6E.
^TY 15W HAS STRUGGLED TO REBOUND FROM AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT
HAD BEGUN OVER 12 HOURS AGO. THE OUTER EYEWALL HAS YET TO CONTRACT BACK
TO THE ORIGINAL EYEWALL'S INITIAL POSITION AND REMAINS RAGGED, SOMEWHAT
FILLED, AND EXCEPTIONALLY ENLARGED. CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL HAD
ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY DISCONTINUOUS AROUND THE EYE. CONSEQUENTLY,
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AS IT TRACKED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
NORTHERN TAIWAN...(more)

>> SINLAKU {pronounced: seen~la~ku}, meaning: Kosrae legendary goddess.
Name contributed by: Micronesia.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 PM (14 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 23.7N 123.5E / NW @ 07 KPH / 160 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGOUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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