Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon JANGMI (OFEL)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TYPHOON JANGMI [OFEL/19W/0815]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 26 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #009
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON JANGMI (OFEL) NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWEST AFTER A SHORT

WESTERLY JOG LAST NIGHT...NOW WITH INCREASED 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS

OF 150 KPH.

*Interests along the east coast of Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of JANGMI (OFEL).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: JANGMI is expected to take a straight NW to WNW track

for the rest of the forecast period & steadily intensify up to Category 4

(220 kph). The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows JANGMI passing just to

the North of Batanes and Itbayat Islands late Sunday evening or early

Monday morning, Sep 29. The core shall pass very close or over the Southern

tip of Taiwan on early Monday...it shall make landfall along the coast of

Southeastern China Tuesday morning Sep 30th.

+ EFFECTS: JANGMI's growing circulation and spiral bands continues to

spread across much of the Philippine Sea and is becoming much much more

stronger with a balance circular and radial look of a classic typhoon...

system not yet affecting any land areas...except for possible Rip Currents

or Rip Tides that can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern

Luzon. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal

tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected

near and to the north and east of JANGMI's projected path particularly on

where the center will make landfall or passage along Extreme Northern Luzon

and Taiwan. Minimal damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-

fetched storm surge is possible along coastal areas of Eastern Luzon &

Eastern Visayas with surf reaching 1 to 3 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The

Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be

enhanced by Typhoon JANGMI (OFEL) across Visayas and Mindanao. This wind

system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with passing moderate to

heavy squalls, causing possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes

heavy rains & winds not exceeding 50 km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) FRI 26 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 15.4º N...LONGITUDE 129.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 645 KM (348 NM) NE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 750 KM (405 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 840 KM (455 NM) ESE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 4: 890 KM (480 NM) ESE OF BALER, AURORA, PH
DISTANCE 5: 950 KM (513 NM) ENE OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 185 KM/HR (100 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 4-5 FEET (1.2-1.7 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 963 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 26 FEET (7.9 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME FRI SEP 26
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CAGAYAN AND ISABELA.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 16.4N 128.6E / 175-215 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 17.9N 127.1E / 195-240 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 20.1N 123.9E / 220-270 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 21.8N 120.8E / 205-250 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.1N 130.3E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 19W (JANGMI) HAS CHANGED COURSE FROM
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD WHILE SLOWING DOWN AND STEADILY
INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY CONTINUOUS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), AS HIGHLIGHTED IN A PARTIAL 251016Z SSMIS 91
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. A MATURING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS
OBSCURED THE LLCC, KEEPING POSITION CONFIDENCE LOW, THOUGH
MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS AIDED IN PINPOINTING THE LLCC. A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED WELL TO THE NORTH AND HAS
APPEARED TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
THAT IS STEERING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD...(more)

>> JANGMI, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 15.4N 130.0E / NW @ 19 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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