Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SINLAKU (MARCE) approaching Kyushu... [Update #015]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #015

Name: TYPHOON SINLAKU [MARCE/15W/0813]

Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) THU 18 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #039A [AMMENDED]
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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RECENT AIRCRAFT RECEONNAISSANCE DATA CONFIRMED WHILE AGO THAT SINLAKU
(MARCE) IS ACTUALLY A TYPHOON...BARRELS DOWN THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
KYUSHU...RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS KYUSHU AND SHIKOKU.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SINLAKU is expected to continue heading ENE-ward as it

starts transition into an Extratropical Cyclone. It shall pass over the

Southern tip of Kyushu early tonight. The system is forecast to pass across

the southern coast of Shikoku and over Southern Honshu beginning early to-

morrow until Saturday afternoon. The passage of this system over Metropo-

litan Tokyo, expected on Saturday morning between 9 to 10 AM Japan Stan-

dard Time (JST).

+ EFFECTS: SINLAKU, despite under moderate Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) (upper-

level winds) - its thick convection continues to organize near the low-level

circulation center (LLCC). The storm's sheared rainbands continues to spread

across Kyushu and Shikoku...shall reach Southern Honshu tomorrow. Cloudy

skies w/ moderate to heavy squalls with winds not exceeding 95 km/hr can be

expected along its rainbands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 & up to

300 mm can be expected along these bands...with isolated amounts reaching

400 mm especially along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas &

steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threa-

tening flash floods & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought

about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH:

The strong Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA/1006 MB)

over the Mid-Western Pacific Ocean continues to drift Westward in the di-

rection of the Philippine Sea...now located near lat 16.9N lon 140.6E...

about 595 km East of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...or about

1,925 km East of Luzon, Philippines...packing sustained winds of 38 km/hr.

This disturbance is likely to become a Tropical Depression within the next

12 to 24 hours. Check out JTWC's Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA)

for more details. Meanwhile, another Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA/1009 MB)

has developed overnight over the South China Sea...located about 660 km.

West of Mindoro, Philippines [12.3N 114.8E]...with max sustained winds of

30 km/hr near the center...moving West slowly across the South China Sea.

The potential of this disturbance of becoming a Tropical Depression is not

yet conducive as moderate Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) hampers its development.

Kindly click the new & cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis showing the

disturbance and other weather systems.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) THU 18 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 30.2º N...LONGITUDE 129.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 170 KM (92 NM) SSW OF KAGOSHIMA, KYUSHU, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 180 KM (97 NM) NORTH OF NAJE ISLAND, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 450 (243 NM) NNE OF OKINAWA ISLAND, JAPAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN KYUSHU, JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME THU SEP 18
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
LIVE RADAR: CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU, TAIWAN
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: None

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 31.3N 131.3E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 22 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER: 32.7N 133.5E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 24 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 35.5N 139.7E / 75-95 KPH / ENE @ 33 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 38.4N 148.2E / 75-95 KPH / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 29.9N 129.4E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 15W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE
TO THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
TS 15W HAS RETURNED TO AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER A VERY SHORT
PERIOD OF ERRATIC MOVEMENT FROM 17/18Z-21Z WHERE THE SYSTEM SLOWED
AND TRACKED NORTHWARD. DESPITE THE STRONGER VWS, THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS REMAINED INTACT AND VERTICALLY STACKED
BASED ON THE 172141Z TMI 37/85 GHZ IMAGES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE
LLCC. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...(more)

>> SINLAKU {pronounced: seen~la~ku}, meaning: Kosrae legendary goddess.
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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RECENT WUNDERGOUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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