Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SINLAKU (MARCE)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #017

Name: TYPHOON SINLAKU [MARCE/15W/0813]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 19 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #044
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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SINLAKU (MARCE) REGAINED TYPHOON STRENGTH THIS MORNING...NOW PASSING

ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU IN JAPAN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SINLAKU is expected to continue heading ENE throughout

its forecast, becoming a cold-core (extratropical) system tonight or

tomorrow. It shall pass close to the south of Metropolitan Tokyo tomorrow

around 5 or 6 AM Japan Standard Time (JST).

+ EFFECTS: SINLAKU's core remains offshore, just to the south of Honshu's

Coast...its rainbands continues to spread across Western & Southern Honshu

...Moderate to heavy squalls with winds not exceeding 100 km/hr can be ex-

pected along its rainbands...1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 & up to

300 mm can be expected along these bands...with isolated amounts reaching

400 mm especially along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas &

steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threa-

tening flash floods & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought

about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) FRI 19 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 33.5º N...LONGITUDE 136.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 190 KM (103 NM) SOUTH OF NAGOYA, HONSHU, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 180 KM (98 NM) SE OF OSAKA, HONSHU, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 360 (195 NM) SW OF TOKYO, JAPAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 31 KM/HR (17 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 405 KM (220 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 13 FEET (3.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JAPAN TIME FRI SEP 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: None

12, 24, 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 34.5N 139.2E / 120-150 KPH / ENE @ 31 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 36.0N 143.0E / 110-140 KPH / ENE @ 33 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 38.6N 152.3E / 95-120 KPH / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 33.2N 136.0E.
^THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TYPHOON (TY) STRENGTH AND HAS
INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 06-09 HOURS WHILE TRACKING NORTH-
EASTWARD, SOUTH OF SHIKOKU, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 182201Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICT INTENSE DEEP CORE CONVECTION
WITH FORMATION OF A RAGGED 12 NM EYE WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
TY 15W HAS STRENGTHENED DESPITE THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS)...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE 30-40
KNOT VWS AND TY 15W'S FORWARD MOTION APPEARS TO BE OFF-SETTING THE
WEAKENING EFFECTS, ALLOWING THE DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION TO RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATE. THE AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKERS HAVE REMAINED IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT...(more)

>> SINLAKU {pronounced: seen~la~ku}, meaning: Kosrae legendary goddess.
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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RECENT WUNDERGOUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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