Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon JANGMI (OFEL) accelerated & made landfall over Northern Taiwan... [Update #008]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008

Name: TYPHOON JANGMI [OFEL/19W/0815]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 28 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #019
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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JANGMI (OFEL) HAS QUICKLY ACCELERATED AND MADE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN

TAIWAN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO CATEGORY THREE
TYPHOON...FIERCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WITHIN THE CORE CURRENTLY

LASHING NORTHERN TAIWAN...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN TAIPEI.

*Interests along Fujian Province of China should closely monitor the progress of JANGMI (OFEL).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: JANGMI is now passing very close to the south of Taipei

and is expected to move into Taiwan Strait tonight. The system shall weaken

rapidly as it traverses the rugged terrain of Central-North Taiwan. It shall

be approaching the coastline of Fujian Province, China early tomorrow morning.

JANGMI is forecast to be downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it begin recur-

ving...accelerating NE-ward across the cooler waters of the East China Sea...

becoming an Extratropical Cyclone while passing to the south of Kyushu,

Japan on October 2.

+ EFFECTS: JANGMI's destructive core (eye & eyewall) is now affecting Nor-

thern and mid-Central Taiwan...with very strong winds...heavy rains and high

storm surges along the coast. Its outer and inner bands continues spreading

across the rest of Taiwan, Taiwan Strait, Fujian Province and Extreme Nor-

thern Luzon. Passing moderate to heavy squalls associated with its outer

bands...with gusts not in excess of 100 kph...with higher gusts along the

inner bands can be expected over the abovementioned areas. Typhoon condi-

tions will continue to prevail across Taiwan tonight until early tomorrow

morning. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 up to 400 mm is possible along

the inner bands...with isolated accumulations of 500 to a high of 600 mm

along the eyewall of JANGMI and over mountain slopes of Northern and Central

Taiwan. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek

evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods & landslides due to

the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary

measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge floo-

ding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and

dangerous battering waves...is possible near the center of JANGMI. Moderate

damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents

or Rip Tides can be also be expected along the beach-front areas of Extreme

Northern Luzon, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group and along the beach front

areas of Southeastern China...with possible far-fetched storm surge is

possible along coastal areas of Eastern Luzon with surf reaching 3 to

5 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate

Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to

be enhanced by Super Typhoon JANGMI (OFEL) across Western Luzon inclu-

ding Metro Manila & Subic Bay. Partly Cloudy to Cloudy skies with po-

ssible light to moderate passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour &

strong SW'ly winds not exceeding 55 km/hr can be expected. Landslides,

mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are

likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks,

low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) is now expected to become a Tropical

Depression within the next 12 to 24 hours while drifting West over the

South China Sea...located near lat 15.3N lon 113.2E...about 540 km ESE

of Da Nang, Vietnam...with sustained winds of 40 kph.

(2) Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA) has strengthened slightly and is

expected to become a Tropical Depression within the next 24 to 36

hours...located near lat 8.2N lon 136.3E...about 220 km NE of Palau

Island or 1,100 East of Mindanao...has sustained winds of 35 kph...

and was moving Westward.

Majority of the forecast models shows these 2 becoming a Tropical

Cyclone in the coming days. Watch for the initial advisories on these

disturbances soon. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Ana-

lysis, issued every 12 PM PST (04 GMT) as it shows the current weather

systems across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) SUN 28 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 24.7º N...LONGITUDE 121.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 80 KM (43 NM) NORTH OF HUALIEN CITY, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 2: 35 KM (19 NM) SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 280 KM (150 NM) ESE OF FUZHOU CITY, CHINA

DISTANCE 4: 380 KM (205 NM) SSE OF WENZHOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 5: 470 KM (255 NM) NNW OF BASC0, BATANES, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 250 KM/HR (135 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 9-12 FEET (2.7-3.9 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 941 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN TAIWAN-FUJIAN COASTLINE AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 890 KM (480 NM)/LARGE/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 29 FEET (8.8 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME SUN SEP 28
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - BATANES, CALAYAN & BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 25.2N 121.5E / 160-195 KPH / N @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 26.7N 121.2E / 130-160 KPH / NNE @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 29.1N 123.8E / 95-120 KPH / ENE @ 19 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 30.3N 128.3E / 75-95 KPH / ENE @ 22 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 23.9N 122.4E.
^TYPHOON (STY) JANGMI 19W HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS BUT HAS MAINTAINED STY STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN
TAIWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR FIXES
INDICATE CONTINUED SHORT-TERM TROCHOIDAL MOTION WITH GENERAL MOTION
STILL TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ONLY
THROUGH TAU 24 THEN THEY DIVERGE AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...(more)

>> JANGMI, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 24.6N 121.7E / NW @ 17 KPH / 195 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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