Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS SINLAKU (MARCE)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU [MARCE/15W/0813]

Issued: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) TUE 09 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU (MARCE) EVEN MORE POWERFUL WITH WINDS OF 110

KPH...NOW HEADING TOWARDS THE NORTH...EYES OKINAWA ISLAND...OUTER

BANDS SPREADING ACROSS BATANES GROUP AND NORTHERN LUZON.

*Residents along Okinawa, Ryukyu Island Chain & the Southern Coast of Japan should closely
monitor the progress of SINLAKU.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SINLAKU has started moving Northerly earlier than

expected and will continue on this path for the next 24 hours, turning

more to the NNE later. This system shall be upgraded to a typhoon later

tonight. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows SINLAKU accelerating

more NNE-ward starting Thursday (Sep 11), passing close to the ESE of

Okinawa Island on early Saturday morning (Sep 13), approx 6 AM JST

(Japan Standard Time). It shall then reach the coast of Kyushu, Japan

on Sunday afternoon as a weakened Category 1 Typhoon. Its peak intensi-

ty forecast shows SINLAKU becoming a Category 3 in the Saffir-Simpson

Scale with winds of 205 km/hr on Friday. Majority of the forecast models

still agrees on the future, NNE or NE track of SINLAKU.

+ EFFECTS: MARCE's large and radial circulation continues to spin over

the Northern Philippine Sea with its western outer bands now spreading

across Northern Luzon. Cloudy skies w/ at times moderate to heavy rains

& thunderstorms accompanied with some winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can

be expected along these bands. Residents in low-lying areas & steep

slopes must seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods &

landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system.

Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be

enhanced by TS SINLAKU (MARCE) across Western Luzon including Metro Ma-

nila, Western Bicol, Southern Luzon, Mindoro, Western Visayas, Palawan,

Western Mindanao. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy

skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains

& winds not exceeding 30 km/hr today. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and

life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/

volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected

areas. Meanwhile, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the whole Phili-

ppines. It shall bring widespread scattered rains and thunderstorms -
most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 09 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 18.1º N...LONGITUDE 125.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 365 KM (198 NM) ENE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 360 KM (195 NM) EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 420 KM (225 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 4: 980 KM (530 NM) SSE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 110 KM/HR (60 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 978 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: OKINAWA-SOUTHERN JAPAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 370 KM (200 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME TUE SEPTEMBER 09
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - CAGAYAN, BATANES AND BABUYAN ISLANDS.
#01 - ISABELA, APAYAO, KALINGA, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE & IFUGAO.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER: 18.9N 124.9E / 130-160 KPH / N @ 09 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER: 19.9N 124.9E / 150-185 KPH / NNE @ 11 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 22.2N 126.1E / 185-230 KPH / NNE @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 12 SEPTEMEBR: 24.5N 127.5E / 205-250 KPH / NNE @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 09 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 17.8N 125.2E.
^THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM (TS) STATUS AT 08/18Z. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 15W CONTINUES TO CONSOLI-
DATE WITH EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE BANDING AND STRONG INFLOW ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 082305Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN IMPRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE BAND SOUTHWEST WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOTION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREE-
MENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...(more)

>> SINLAKU {pronounced: seen~la~ku}, meaning: Kosrae legendary goddess.
Name contributed by: Micronesia.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 09 SEPTEMBER: 18.0N 125.0E / NW @ 11 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGOUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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