Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon JANGMI (OFEL) to hit Taiwan tonight... [Update #007]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007

Name: SUPER TYPHOON JANGMI [OFEL/19W/0815]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 28 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #017
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SUPER TYPHOON JANGMI (OFEL) APPROACHING THE

EASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN AT A SLOWER PACE. RAIN BANDS SPREADING ACROSS
TAIWAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON IN THE PHILIPPINES.

*Interests along Taiwan & Fujian Province of China should closely monitor the progress of JANGMI (OFEL).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: JANGMI The powerful core of JANGMI expected to make

landfall over Eastern Taiwan, passing over or very close to Hualien City

tonight. The Category 5 system shall weaken rapidly as it traverses the

rugged terrain of Central-North Taiwan tonight until Monday morning and

then traverse Taiwan Strait tomorrow afternoon while taking a sharp north-

ward to NNE recurvature. JANGMI shall be downgraded into a Tropical Storm

as it accelerates NE across the cooler waters of the East China Sea...

becoming an Extratropical system as it races towards Western Japan on

October 1st.

+ EFFECTS: JANGMI's dangerous and powerful circulation continues to engulf

the northernmost part of the Philippine Sea, Extreme Northern Luzon and

Taiwan including Taiwan Strait...western & southern outer bands continues

spreading across Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan...with deteriorating

weather conditions over Taiwan as the inner bands approaches. Passing mo-

derate to heavy squalls associated with its outer bands...with gusts not

in excess of 100 kph can be expected along the affected areas. Typhoon

conditions will begin to commence across Eastern and Central Taiwan this

afternoon around sunset and will last until tomorrow morning at sunrise.

1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 up to 400 mm is possible along the

inner bands...with isolated accumulations of 500 to 600 mm at the eyewall

of JANGMI and along mountain slopes of Eastern and Central Taiwan. Resi-

dents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacua-

tion for possible life-threatening flash floods & landslides due to the

anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary mea-

sures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge floo-

ding of more than 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large

and dangerous battering waves...is possible near the center of JANGMI.

Extreme damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Dangers from Rip

Currents or Rip Tides can be also be expected along the beach-front areas

of Extreme Northern Luzon, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group and along the

beach front areas of Southeastern China...with possible far-fetched storm

surge is possible along coastal areas of Eastern Luzon with surf reaching

3 to 5 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate

Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to

be enhanced by Super Typhoon JANGMI (OFEL) across NW Visayas, Southern

Luzon, Bicol Region, Metro Manila and Western Luzon. Partly Cloudy to

Cloudy skies with possible light to moderate passing rains w/ at times

heavy downpour & strong SW'ly winds not exceeding 55 km/hr can be ex-

pected. Landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening

flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes,

river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch: The 2 areas of strong Tropical Disturbances

(LPAs) west and east of the Philippines continues to organize..the

first system, Tropical Disturbance 98W has weakened due to the effects

of a strong shear from STY JANGMI's outflow...now approaching the coast

of Vietnam...near lat 15.3N lon 112.9E...or about 510 km ESE of Da Nang,

Vietnam...with sustained winds of 30 kph...moving Westward. The second

system...Tropical Disturbance 99W has maintained its organization while

drifting WNW across the Caroline Islands...and was located near lat 8.3N

lon 139.7E...about 220 km SE of Colonia, Yap Island or 1,475 East of

Mindanao...has sustained winds of 30 kph...and moving WNW slowly. These

systems will be closely monitored for possible development into signi-

ficant Tropical Cyclones in the coming hours or days. Kindly click the

cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every 12 PM PST (04 GMT)

as it shows the current weather systems across the South China Sea and

the Western Pacific Ocean.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) SUN 28 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 22.1º N...LONGITUDE 123.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 235 KM (128 NM) NE OF BASC0, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 285 KM (153 NM) SE OF HUALIEN CITY, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 375 KM (203 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 4: 615 KM (333 NM) SE OF FUZHOU CITY, TAIWAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 250 KM/HR (135 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 305 KM/HR (165 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FIVE (5)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: >18 FEET (>5.0 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 922 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 890 KM (480 NM)/LARGE/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 32 FEET (9.7 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME SUN SEP 28
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.
#02 - CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.
#01 - NORTHERN ISABELA, KALINGA, ABRA, ILOCOS NORTE, APAYAO,

CAGAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 23.1N 122.3E / 230-280 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 24.3N 121.2E / 175-215 KPH / NNW @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 26.9N 121.2E / 100-130 KPH / NNE @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 29.4N 123.7E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 20 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 21.8N 123.7E.
^OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, SUPER TYPHOON (STY) JANGMI HAS MAINTAINED ITS
STRENGTH WHILE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. ANIMATED IN-
FRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271134Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTED A ROUND
18 NM EYE WITH AN INTENSE, SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND
EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER ALL QUADRANTS. THE PRIMARY MODELS
HAVE SHOWN INCREASING AGREEMENT WITH A RECURVATURE SCENARIO NEAR TAU
48, AND INCREASED SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...(more)

>> JANGMI, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 22.1N 123.2E / NW @ 19 KPH / 215 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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