Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SINLAKU (MARCE)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007

Name: TYPHOON SINLAKU [MARCE/15W/0813]

Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) FRI 12 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #015
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON SINLAKU (MARCE) WEAKENED OVERNIGHT AS IT UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL

REPLACEMENT CYCLE...NOW RE-INTENSIFYING AS IT NEARS THE ISLAND CHAIN OF

YAEYAMA.

*Residents along Eastern Taiwan, Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Island Chain & the Southern Coast of
Kyushu in Japan should closely monitor the progress of SINLAKU.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SINLAKU is expected to continue moving slowly NNW

for the next 24 to 36 hours, reintensifying back to a Category 4 ty-

phoon w/ forecast winds of 215 kph tomorrow night. The core shall reach

Yaeyama Island Chain, just to the east of Northern Taiwan tomorrow mor-

ning. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows SINLAKU starting to re-

curve gradually to the NE beginning Sunday morning towards Southern

Kyushu in Japan. The typhoon is forecast to lose strength down to Cate-

gory 1 as it approaches the Southern Coast of Kyushu on Wednesday mor-

ning, Sep 17. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: Some computer models are still showing a po-

ssibilty that SINLAKU may track more northwestward or WNW and make landfall over Northern

Taiwan tomorrow. This scenario is likely if the strong steering ridge to its east continues to

extend to its north. Actually most of the Asian agencies shows this scenario. kindly click here
to view asian tracks.

+ EFFECTS: SINLAKU's internal structure is still undergoing an Eyewall

Replacement Cycle (ERC), thus the temporary weakening of its wind speed.

Once the ERC ends, re-strengthening of its winds is expected, thus a

shift back to Category 4 status at most is likely. Heavy squalls within

its inner bands is now approaching the Yaeyama Island Chain...while its

outer bands continues to affect the Batanes Group of Islands...& Eastern

Taiwan. Cloudy skies w/ at times moderate to heavy squalls with winds

not exceeding 60 km/hr can be expected along these bands. One day rain-

fall accumulations of up to 200 mm can be expected along these outer

bands. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must seek evacuation

for possible life-threatening flash floods & landslides due to the anti-

cipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures

must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of

9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous

battering waves can be expected near and to the north of SINLAKU's pro-

jected path particularly on where the center passes by in Yaeyama Is-

lands. Extensive damage is possible on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to

be enhanced by TY SINLAKU (MARCE) across Western Luzon including Metro

Manila, Western Bicol, Southern Luzon, Mindoro, Western Visayas, & Pa-

lawan. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with

possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds

not exceeding 30 km/hr. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threa-

tening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano

slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected

areas. Meanwhile, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the whole Phili-

ppines. It shall bring widespread scattered rains and thunderstorms -
most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 12 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 23.0º N...LONGITUDE 124.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 370 KM (200 NM) NE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 305 KM (165 NM) ESE OF HUALIEN CITY, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 360 KM (195 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 4: 530 KM (285 NM) SW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 250 KM/HR (135 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 941 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: YAEYAMA ISLANDS
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 35 FEET (10.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME FRI SEP 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 23.7N 124.1E / 205-250 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 24.5N 123.6E / 205-250 KPH / NNW @ 07 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 25.9N 123.1E / 215-260 KPH / NNE @ 07 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 27.5N 124.0E / 185-230 KPH / NE @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 22.8N 124.5E.
^IT APPEARS THAT A PERIOD OF WEAKENING ASSOCIATED WITH AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS ENDED WITH THE APPEARANCE OF A SOLID RING
COMPRISING THE NEW, SECONDARY EYEWALL. THE ORIGINAL EYE FEATURE,
WHICH HAS WOBBLED WITHIN THE LARGER OUTER EYEWALL THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE PAST 12 HOURS, IS STILL VISIBLE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY...(more)

>> SINLAKU {pronounced: seen~la~ku}, meaning: Kosrae legendary goddess.
Name contributed by: Micronesia.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 22.9N 124.3E / NW @ 13 KPH / 175 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGOUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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