Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD PABLO (21W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION PABLO [21W]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 29 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #001
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION PABLO (21W) NEWLY-F0RMED OVER THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE

SEA...NOW THREATENS EASTERN VISAYAS AND BICOL REGION.

*Interests along the eastern coast of Visayas and the Bicol Region should closely monitor the
progress of PABLO.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: PABLO is expected to turn more to the WNW to NW for the

next 3 days and will reach Tropical Storm strength later tonight or early

tomorrow morning. The center shall cross northern Samar early Wednesday

morning Oct 1 and track across Albay Gulf before noontime...Lagonoy Gulf

by early afternoon...and over Garchitorena and Caramoan Peninsula (Cama-

rines Sur) around around 3 PM. The 3 to 5-day long range forecast shows

PABLO brushing the coast of Aurora on Thursday afternoon Oct 2...and to

the east of Batanes Group on Saturday afternoon, Oct 4.

+ EFFECTS: PABLO's developing circulation remains over the Southern Phi-

lippine...bringing showers and winds across Palau. The rain bands of this

new system is now spreading across Eastern and Northern Mindanao and is

expected to reach Eastern Visayas later tonight or tomorrow morning.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The

Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be

enhanced by Typhoon JANGMI (OFEL) across Visayas, Northern & Western

Mindanao. Partly Cloudy to Cloudy skies with possible light to moderate

passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour & strong SW'ly winds not excee-

ding 50 km/hr can be expected. Landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars)

and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep moun-

tain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the

affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch: Check out the latest advisories on another
newly-formed TC over the South China Sea...Tropical Storm MEKKHALA
(20W)...approaching the coast of Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam.
Click here to open the page.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) MON 29 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 9.0º N...LONGITUDE 130.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 555 KM (300 NM) ESE OF SIARGAO ISLAND RESORT, PH
DISTANCE 2: 665 KM (360 NM) SE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH
DISTANCE 3: 695 KM (375 NM) SE OF TACLOBAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 885 KM (478 NM) SE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 5: 985 KM (532 NM) SE OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EASTERN VISAYAS-BICOL REGION
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 8 FEET (2.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME MON SEP 29
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - EASTERN SAMAR.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 9.7N 129.0E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 22 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 11.0N 126.9E / 65-85 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 13.7N 124.0E / 65-85 KPH / NNW @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 16.2N 123.0E / 75-95 KPH / N @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 8.7N 131.6E.
^...(more)

>> JANGMI, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 9.9N 130.7E / NW @ 15 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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