Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SINLAKU (MARCE) bears down over Taiwan... [Update #009]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #009

Name: TYPHOON SINLAKU [MARCE/15W/0813]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) SAT 13 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #019
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON SINLAKU (MARCE) DANGEROUSLY AIMING TOWARDS TAIPEI...EYEWALL

NOW APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN TAIWAN...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS

AFFECTING THE ISLAND NATION.

*Residents along Eastern Taiwan, SE China, Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Island Chain & the Southern
Coast of Kyushu in Japan should closely monitor the progress of SINLAKU.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SINLAKU's forecast is now on a WNW track, taking the

alternate scenario which has been mentioned on this section for the past

3 days now. It now brings the core over Northern Taiwan in less than 18

hours from now. The large eye is expected to pass over or very close to

Taipei around 5 or 7 AM HK time tomorrow, then shall turn slowly to the

northwest, exiting through the Northwestern Coast of Taiwan tomorrow

afternoon through the evening. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows

SINLAKU recurving and accelerating to a more NE to ENE track beginning

early Monday morning, while along Coast of Eastern China - bringing the

typhoon over the Southern coast of Kyushu in Japan on Wednesday morning,

Sep 17. The typhoon is forecast to lose its strength, down to Tropical

Storm - as it passes through Kyushu's southern coast.

+ EFFECTS: SINLAKU's large eye will be making landfall over northern

Taiwan later tonight with its intense eyewall expected to engulf the

whole of Northern and portion of Central Taiwan...Its inner bands on the

other hand expected to cover central Taiwan and Yaeyama Islands through

the evening...while its outer bands will spread across Southern Taiwan,

Taiwan Strait and along the coast of Southeastern China...Batanes and

across Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands. Cloudy skies w/ moderate to heavy squalls

with winds not exceeding 85 km/hr can be expected along its outer bands,

with increasing winds and more pronounce rainfall within the inner bands.

1-day rainfall accumulations of up to 200-400 mm can be expected along

these bands...with isolated 500 mm along the eyewall. Deteriorating wea-

ther conditions will be expected along Northern Taiwan as the core slowly

approaches tonight. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must seek

evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods & landslides due to

the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary

measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge

flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and

dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of SIN-

LAKU's projected path particularly on where the center passes by in Yae-

yama Islands and soon over Northern Taiwan. Extensive damage is possible

on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon has weakened
slightly as it continues to be enhanced by TY SINLAKU (MARCE) - across
Western Luzon including Metro Manila & Mindoro. This wind system is expec-
ted to bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate
to sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding 30 km/hr. Landslides, mud-
flows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along
steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas
of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) SAT 13 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 24.2º N...LONGITUDE 122.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 105 KM (57 NM) ENE OF HUALIEN CITY, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 2: 135 KM (73 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 415 KM (225 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 4: 465 KM (252 NM) SSE OF WENZHOU, CHINA

DISTANCE 5: 600 KM (325 NM) WSW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TW0 (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 958 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 32 FEET (9.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME SAT SEP 13
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
LIVE RADAR: CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU, TAIWAN

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 24.5N 122.1E / 140-165 KPH / NW @ 07 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 25.2N 121.5E / 130-160 KPH / NNW @ 07 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 26.9N 121.7E / 130-160 KPH / ENE @ 13 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 28.3N 124.5E / 140-165 KPH / ENE @ 20 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 24.1N 122.7E.
^TY 15W HAS STRUGGLED TO REBOUND FROM AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT
HAD BEGUN OVER 12 HOURS AGO. THE OUTER EYEWALL HAS YET TO CONTRACT BACK
TO THE ORIGINAL EYEWALL'S INITIAL POSITION AND REMAINS RAGGED, SOMEWHAT
FILLED, AND EXCEPTIONALLY ENLARGED. CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL HAD
ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY DISCONTINUOUS AROUND THE EYE. CONSEQUENTLY,
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AS IT TRACKED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
NORTHERN TAIWAN...(more)

>> SINLAKU {pronounced: seen~la~ku}, meaning: Kosrae legendary goddess.
Name contributed by: Micronesia.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 24.1N 122.6E / NW @ 07 KPH / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGOUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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