Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon JANGMI (OFEL)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006

Name: SUPER TYPHOON JANGMI [OFEL/19W/0815]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) SAT 27 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #014
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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JANGMI (OFEL) BECOMES THE SECOND SUPER TYPHOON OF 2008...NOW A CATAS-

TROPHIC CATEGORY 5 THREAT TO TAIWAN. OUTER BANDS WITH HEAVY SQUALLS

APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF TAIWAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON.

*Interests along the northern and northeastern coast of Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the
progress of JANGMI (OFEL).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: JANGMI is expected to continue moving northwesterly

with a slight WNW bend within the next 24 to 48 hours. Its powerful core

(eye and eyewall) shall make landfall along Eastern Taiwan tomorrow eve-

ning, passing more or less 200 km to the north of Batanes...and cross

Central Taiwan until Monday morning. JANGMI shall traverse the Taiwan

Straight before its final landfall along Fujian Province during the

early morning hours on Tuesday Sep 30...and dissipate over Fujian,

China on Oct 1st.

+ EFFECTS: JANGMI's perfect radial circulation continues to cover the

northern part of the Philippine Sea...western outer bands now spreading

across the northeastern coast of Northern Luzon including Batanes-Babu-

yan-Calayan Islands, and Eastern Taiwan. Passing moderate to heavy

squalls associated with its outer bands can be expected along the

affected areas...while danger of Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be

expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern Luzon, Batanes-Calayan-

Babuyan Group and Taiwan. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of more

than 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dange-

rous battering waves...is possible near the center of JANGMI. Extreme

damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge

is possible along coastal areas of Eastern Luzon & Eastern Visayas with

surf reaching 3 to 5 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The

Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be

enhanced by Super Typhoon JANGMI (OFEL) across Visayas and is now sprea-

ding across Southern Luzon including the Bicol Region. Partly Cloudy to

Cloudy skies with possible light to moderate passing rains w/ at times

heavy downpour & strong SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be ex-

pected. Landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening

flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes,

river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch: There are 2 areas of strong Tropical Distur-

bances (LPAs) west and east of the Philippines..the first system,

Tropical Disturbance 98W was located over the South China Sea, just

West of Luzon...near lat 15.5N lon 114.8E...or about 590 km WSW of

Dagupan City...with sustained winds of 40 kph...barely moving at the

moment. The second system, now known as Tropical Disturbance 99W con-

tinues to slowly organize over the Caroline Islands...near lat 6.0N

lon 142.0E...about 580 km SE of Colonia, Yap Island or 1,695 East of

Southern Mindanao...with sustained winds of 30 kph...moving West

slowly. These systems will be closely monitored for possible develop-

ment into significant Tropical Cyclones in the coming hours or days.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every

12 PM PST (04 GMT) as it shows the current weather systems across

the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) SAT 27 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.1º N...LONGITUDE 126.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 420 KM (227 NM) EAST OF BASC0, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 490 KM (265 NM) NE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 625 KM (338 NM) SE OF HUALIEN CITY, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 4: 710 KM (383 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 250 KM/HR (135 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 305 KM/HR (165 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FIVE (5)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: >18 FEET (>5.0 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 922 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 890 KM (480 NM)/LARGE/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 30 FEET (9.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 11 AM MANILA TIME SAT SEP 27
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - BATANES, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS.
#01 - CAGAYAN, ISABELA, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, BENGUET, LA UNION,

ILOCOS SUR, ILOCOS NORTE, KALINGA, ABRA & APAYAO.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 21.3N 124.8E / 240-295 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 22.3N 123.3E / 220-270 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 23.9N 122.3E / 130-160 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 25.6N 118.8E / 100-130 KPH / N @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.6N 126.5E.
^THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO SUPER TYPHOON (STY) STRENGTH BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 6.5 (127 KNOTS) TO 7.0 (140 KNOTS).
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261953Z TMI IMAGE
DEPICTED A ROUND 28 NM EYE WITH AN INTENSE, SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER ALL QUADRANTS. THE
PRIMARY MODELS HAVE SHOWN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 48 WITH
GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKER SOLUTIONS...(more)

>> JANGMI, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 20.0N 126.2E / NW @ 19 KPH / 185 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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