Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD MARCE (95W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCE [95W]

Issued: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) MON 08 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / MTSAT-1R SATELLITE FIX
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCE (95W) NEWLY-FORMED OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST...OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING HEAVY DOWNPOUR

ACROSS THE BICOL REGION AND ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON, FROM

CAGAYAN DOWN TO NORTHERN QUEZON.

*Residents along the Eastern Coast of Luzon (from Batanes down to Aurora) should closely
monitor the progress of this tropical cyclone.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MARCE is now expected to move on a slow NNW track

within the next 24 to 36 hours, reaching Tropical Storm status late

tonight or early tomorrow morning. The 2 to 3-day medium-range forecast

shows the system becoming a strong tropical storm or typhoon on Wednesday

or Thursday (Sep 10-11) as it starts to track more Northward in the di-

rection of Taiwan-Okinawa-Southern Japan area. More detailed forecast on

this potential weather threat in the coming updates.

+ EFFECTS: MARCE's circulation continues to consolidate over the Philippine

Sea with its outer bands spreading across the Bicol Region and the eastern

coast of Luzon. Widespread moderate to heavy rains & thunderstorms accom-

panied with some winds not exceeding 30 km/hr can be expected along these

bands. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bu-

lusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUD-

FLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must

stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this depression are

likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas

& steep slopes must seek evacuation for possible flash floods & landslides

due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precau-

tionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon may be enhanced by

TD MARCE later tonight or tomorrow across the Visayas, Palawan, Western

Mindanao and Southern Luzon. This wind system is expected to bring mostly

cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy

rains & winds not exceeding 30 km/hr over the affected areas. Landslides,

mudflows (lahars) and flash floods is likely to occur along steep

mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of

the affected areas. Meanwhile, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the

whole Philippines. It shall bring widespread scattered rains and thunder-

storms - most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 08 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.1º N...LONGITUDE 126.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 340 KM (185 NM) NNE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 410 KM (220 NM) NE OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 415 KM (225 NM) EAST OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 4: 485 KM (265 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 525 KM (285 NM) SE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1001 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN-OKINAWA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 08 FEET (2.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME MON SEPTEMBER 08

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - CAGAYAN, ISABELA & NORTHERN AURORA.
#01 - CATANDUANES, POLILLO ISLAND, REST OF AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA,
BENGUET, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, ILOCOS SUR, ILOCOS NORTE, ABRA,
KALINGA, APAYAO, BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS AND BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 08 SEPTEMBER: 16.2N 126.3E / NW @ 15 KPH / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT JMA TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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