Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 18W (NINA)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [NINA]

Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) FRI 19 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #002
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (NINA) NEWLY-FORMED WEST OF GUAM, IS ABOUT TO
ENTER THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) AS IT ACCELERATES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.

*Residents along the East Coast of Luzon including the Bicol Region should closely monitor the
progress of 18W (NINA).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 18W is expected to slow down and turn westward for

the next 24 hours. It shall become a Tropical Storm later this afternoon

or evening. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows 18W turning WNW-ward

in the direction of Batanes-Taiwan Area, becoming a Categoy 3 Typhoon w/

projected winds of almost 200 kph by Wednesday morning, Sep 24. *Alter-

nate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibilty that 18W may track more

Westward, making landfall over Central or Northern Luzon on Wednesday.

This scenario is likely if the westward extension of the strong steering

ridge north of 18W remains strong.

+ EFFECTS: 18W's developing circulation remains over the eastern part of

the Philippine Sea and is not yet affeting any Pacific Islands.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: A surge of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon has
been enhanced by the developing TD 18W (PRE-NINA) across Palau, Ulithi,
Yap and other small islands of Western Micronesia. This wind system is
expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off" light to
moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding 40 km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) FRI 19 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 15.2º N...LONGITUDE 135.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 75 KM (40 NM) EAST OF PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)
DISTANCE 2: 1,235 KM (667 NM) ENE OF BICOL REGION, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,460 KM (788 NM) ESE OF AURORA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 24 KM/HR (13 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 7 FEET (2.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 11 AM MANILA TIME FRI SEP 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: None

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER: 15.3N 134.6E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 13 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 15.5N 133.2E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 13 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 16.5N 130.3E / 110-140 KPH / WNW @ 13 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER: 17.9N 127.7E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.2N 136.0E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W WAS UPGRADED TO WARNING STATUS
BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION EVIDENT IN BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 182205Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BAND-
ING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 37 GHZ IMAGE, IN PARTICULAR, SHOWED
AN IMPROVED LLCC WITH MUCH IMPROVED BANDING. TD 18W HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED
AND HAS REMAINED INCONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH BOTH
NOGAPS AND GFS POORLY INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM...(more)

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER: 14.3N 134.9E / WNW @ 11 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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