Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SINLAKU (MARCE) moving away from Northern Taiwan... [Update #011]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #011

Name: TYPHOON SINLAKU [MARCE/15W/0813]

Issued: 11:00 PM MANILA TIME (15:00 GMT) SUN 14 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #025
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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SINLAKU (MARCE) JUST BARELY A TYPHOON, AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY AWAY FROM

THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN.

*Residents along SE China, Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Island Chain & the Southern Coast of Kyushu
in Japan should closely monitor the progress of SINLAKU.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SINLAKU is expected to start recurving sharply

ENE-ward for the next 5-days and shall be downgraded into a Tropical

Storm late tomorrow or Tuesday. It is then forecast to lose its tro-

pical characteristics, becoming an Extratropical Cyclone on Thursday

or Friday while passing just to the south of Southern Japan.

+ EFFECTS: SINLAKU's weakening core continues to affect Northern

Taiwan including Metropolitan Taipei and the northern part of Tai-

wan Strait, bringing continuous typhoon conditions along the area

...while its inner bands remains across the rest of Taiwan & Taiwan

Strait. The typhoon's outer bands still affecting Yaeyama Islands,

the Bashi Channel & SE China particularly Fuzhou Province. Cloudy

skies w/ moderate to heavy squalls with winds not exceeding 60 km/hr

can be expected along its outer bands, with increasing winds and more

pronounce rainfall within the inner bands. 1-day rainfall accumula-

tions of 200 & up to 400 mm can be expected along these bands...with

isolated accumulations of 500 mm especially along mountain slopes.

Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek

evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods & landslides

due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Pre-

cautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal

Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along

with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to

the northeast of SINLAKU's projected path particularly on where the

center passes by. Minimal to moderate damage is possible on this

type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY:

The weak Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues

to be enhanced by TY SINLAKU (MARCE) - across the coastal areas of

Western Luzon. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy

skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy

rains & winds not exceeding 30 km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 PM MANILA TIME (15:00 GMT) Sun 14 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 25.6º N...LONGITUDE 121.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 90 KM (48 NM) NW OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 2: 180 KM (97 NM) ESE OF FUZHOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 3: 575 KM (310 NM) NNW OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 4: 705 KM (380 NM) WSW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY 0NE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 665 KM (360 NM)/AVG/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 27 FEET (8.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 PM MANILA TIME SUN SEP 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
LIVE RADAR: CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU, TAIWAN
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: None

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 AM (00 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 26.2N 121.0E / 130-160 KPH / NE @ 09 KPH

8 PM (12 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 26.9N 121.9E / 140-165 KPH / NE @ 13 KPH

8 PM (12 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 28.2N 125.1E / 100-130 KPH / ENE @ 20 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 29.6N 129.9E / 85-100 KPH / ENE @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 25.4N 121.0E.
^TYPHOON (TY) SINLAKU (15W) WEAKENED BRIEFLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
TAIWAN, AND THEN BEGAN TO REGAIN INTENSITY AFTER MOVING OVER THE
WATERS OF THE TAIWAN STRAIT OVER PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED METSAT
IMAGERY AND TAIWAN RADAR DATA NOW INDICATE THAT TY 15W HAS BEGUN TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, AND 141330Z ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
HINTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY EVEN BE BEGINNING A POLEWARD TURN AS
ANTICIPATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A RECENT SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS
THAT DESPITE RECENT WEAKENING, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NOGAPS, WHICH CONTINUES TO OVERWEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND ERRONEOUSLY
DEPICT A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK...(more)

>> SINLAKU {pronounced: seen~la~ku}, meaning: Kosrae legendary goddess.
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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PAGASA FINAL CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 25.5N 121.2E / N @ 09 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGOUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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