Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS Pre-JANGMI (19W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL STORM PRE-JANGMI [19W]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) WED 24 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #003
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM PRE-JANGMI (19W) NEWLY-FORMED OVER THE CAROLINE ISLANDS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...NOW WITH WINDS OF 85 KPH...EXPECTED TO ENTER THE

PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSBILITY (PAR) TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINS

AFFECTING THE WHOLE OF THE PHILIPPINES.

*Residents along the east coast of the Philippines should closely monitor the progress of Pre-JANGMI

(Pre-OFEL).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: PRE-JANGMI's WNW path is expected to continue for

the next 24 hours across the warm waters of the Philippine Sea with a

more NW track later on Friday, Sep 26 - becoming a Category 1 typhoon

with winds of 120 kph. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows PRE-

JANGMI turning back to a West or WNW track in almost the same area where

HAGUPIT passed by...On Monday afternoon, Sep 29, the system shall begin

turning Westward, approaching Batanes Group as a Category 4 Typhoon with

projected winds of 220 kph.

+ EFFECTS: PRE-JANGMI's circulation and spiral bands continues to grow

with its rain bands affecting the Western Micronesian islands of Yap...

Ulithi...and Palau. Moderate to heavy squalls (rain, winds & thunder-

storms) associated with its developing outer bands can be expected over

the affected area. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must

remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods

& landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this

system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The surge of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon
is expected to be enhanced anew...by PRE-JANGMI (PRE-OFEL) and affect
Metro Manila, Luzon including Bicol, Palawan & Mindoro, Visayas and
Mindanao over the weekend. This wind system is expected to bring mostly
cloudy skies with passing moderate to heavy squalls - causing possible
"on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds not
exceeding 50 km/hr to prevail.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) WED 24 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 12.5º N...LONGITUDE 136.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 195 KM (105 NM) EAST OF PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)
DISTANCE 2: 360 KM (195 NM) NNW OF COLONIA, YAP
DISTANCE 3: 1,325 KM (715 NM) EAST OF CATARMAN, NORTHERN SAMAR, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,360 KM (735 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 5: 1,480 KM (800 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 989 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME WED SEP 24
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 13.2N 135.5E / 95-120 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 14.4N 133.8E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 17.2N 130.6E / 150-185 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 19.2N 128.0E / 175-215 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 24 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 12.2N 137.2E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. SHIP REPORTS FROM THE IRON YANDI (VNVR) OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS INDICATE SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-30 KNOTS AND SLP AS LOW AS 1005
MB. VNVR IS CURRENTLY 100 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH 110/27 AND
1009.2 MB. UPPER AIR DATA FROM YAP INDICATED A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GRADIENT WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS
AT 23/12Z. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING AWAY FROM YAP AND THE
24/00Z UPPER AIR GRADIENT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 15-20 KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TS STRENGTH BASED ON RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN
ORGANIZATION WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING...DVORAK ESTIMATES ALSO
INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS BUT HESITANT TO BRING
SYSTEM INTENSITY MUCH HIGHER THAN 35 KNOTS WITHOUT SUPPORTING
EVIDENCE AT THIS TIME. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED
BUT SURPRISINGLY IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 120 HOURS...(more)

>> JANGMI, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS PRE-JANGMI (PRE-OFEL)...go visit
our website @:

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