Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon JANGMI (OFEL)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005

Name: TYPHOON JANGMI [OFEL/19W/0815]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 26 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #011
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON JANGMI (OFEL) NOW ACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD...THREAT TO EXTREME

NORTHERN LUZON AND TAIWAN INCREASES.

*Interests along the northern and northeastern coast of Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the
progress of JANGMI (OFEL).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: JANGMI is expected to continue moving NW track for

the rest of the forecast period & steadily intensify. Its core (eye and

eyewall) shall pass to the north of Batanes and Itbayat Islands on Sun-

day afternoon with forecast wind speeds of 215 kph (Category 4). The 2

to 5-day long-range forecast shows JANGMI passing very close or over the

SW or Southern tip of Taiwan on Monday morning...it shall then make land-

fall along the coast of Southeastern China on Tuesday morning Sep 30th...

and dissipate rapidly over land along China on Oct 1st.

+ EFFECTS: JANGMI's growing circulation and spiral bands continues to

spread across much of the Philippine Sea and is becoming more stronger

with a balance circular and radial look of a classic large typhoon...

system not yet affecting any land areas...except for possible Rip

Currents or Rip Tides that can be expected along the beach-front areas

of Eastern Luzon. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet

above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves

can be expected near and to the north and east of JANGMI's projected path

particularly on where the center will make landfall or passage along Ex-

treme Northern Luzon and Taiwan. Moderate damage is possible on this type

of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is possible along coastal areas

of Eastern Luzon & Eastern Visayas with surf reaching 3 to 5 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The

Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be

enhanced by Typhoon JANGMI (OFEL) across Visayas, Northern & Western

Mindanao. Partly Cloudy to Cloudy skies with possible light to moderate

passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour & strong SW'ly winds not excee-

ding 50 km/hr can be expected. Landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars)

and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep moun-

tain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the

affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch: Two (2) new area of developing Tropical Dis-

turbances (LPAs) have been spotted..the first system dubbed as 98W was

located over the South China Sea, just West of Luzon...continues to

slowly organize near lat 15.4N lon 116.4E...or about 385 km West of Iba,

Zambales...with sustained winds of 35 kph...drifting Westward. The

second system, formerly 97W, on the other hand remains over the Caroline

Islands...near lat 8.0N lon 145E...about 545 km South of Guam or 2,045

East of Mindanao...with sustained winds of 25 kph...almost stationary.

These potential systems will be closely monitored for possible develop-

ment into significant Tropical Cyclones in days to come. Kindly click

the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every 12 PM PST (04

GMT) as it shows the current weather systems across the South China

Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) FRI 26 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 17.2º N...LONGITUDE 128.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 690 KM (373 NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
DISTANCE 2: 725 KM (390 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 740 KM (400 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 4: 785 KM (425 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 5: 1,045 KM (565 NM) SE OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 6-8 FEET (1.8-2.6 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 956 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 835 KM (450 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 26 FEET (7.9 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME FRI SEP 26
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CAGAYAN, ISABELA, CALAYAN, BABUYAN AND BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 18.2N 127.3E / 185-230 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 19.4N 125.6E / 195-240 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 21.3N 122.3E / 205-250 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 23.1N 119.6E / 175-215 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 16.9N 128.9E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 19W (JANGMI) HAS TURNED GRADUALLY POLEWARD
WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AN INCREASE
IN STORM ORGANIZATION IS WITNESSED BY THE APPEARANCE OF A 30 NM
EYE IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...(more)

>> JANGMI, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 17.3N 128.7E / NW @ 19 KPH / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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