Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS HAGUPIT (NINA) nears Bicol... [Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT [NINA/18W/0814]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SAT 20 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #007
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (NINA) NOW WITH 100-KPH WINDS...TURNING SLIGHTLY

WEST-NORTHWEST...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS THE BICOL REGION.

*Residents along the Eastern Coast of Luzon including the Bicol Region, Quezon & Samar Provinces
should closely monitor the progress of HAGUPIT (NINA).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HAGUPIT is expected to track more to the NW for the

2 days, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon later tonight or early tomorrow

morning. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows HAGUPIT returning back

to its WNW track on Monday afternoon, passing very close to Batanes Is-

land on Tuesday morning Sep 23 w/ projected wind speeds of almost 200

kph (Category 3). It shall then move out into the South China Sea on

Tuesday evening, Sep 23. The typhoon shall be approaching the southern

coast of Guangdong Province of China, near Hong Kong-Macau area on Wed-

nesday afternoon Sep 24. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possi-

bilty that HAGUPIT may continue tracking more Westward to WNW & make

landfall over Central or Northern Luzon on Tuesday, Sep 23. This sce-

nario is likely if the westward extension of the strong steering ridge

north & NW of HAGUPIT remains strong.

+ EFFECTS: HAGUPIT's large circulation remains over the Philippine Sea.

Its outer bands continues to spread across the eastern coast of the

Bicol Region and Samar Provinces. Under these bands, the affected areas

will experience light to moderate rainfall w/ winds not exceeding 50

km/hr. Moderate to heavy Squalls associated with the outer bands can be

expected later tonight or tomorrow over the affected areas, as HAGUPIT

moves closer. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay

& of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where

possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are

located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this

storm are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in

low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for

possible life-threatening flash floods & landslides due to the antici-

pated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures

must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The surge of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon
which has been enhanced by TS HAGUPIT (NINA) continues to affect Minda
nao and Visayas including Palawan. This wind system is expected to bring
mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to some-
times heavy rains & winds not exceeding 40 km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) SAT 20 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.4º N...LONGITUDE 129.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 570 KM (308 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 630 KM (340 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 675 KM (365 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 830 KM (448 NM) ESE OF INFANTA, QUEZON, PH

DISTANCE 5: 895 KM (485 NM) EAST OF METRO MANILA, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 24 KM/HR (13 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: LUZON
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 705 KM (380 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME SAT SEP 20
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, NAGA CITY, IRIGA CITY,
      CATANDUANES, ALBAY, LEGAZPI CITY, SORSOGON, NORTHERN SAMAR,
      WESTERN SAMAR, & EASTERN SAMAR.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 15.3N 128.2E / 120-150 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 16.7N 127.0E / 140-165 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER: 18.9N 124.2E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 23 SEPTEMBER: 20.6N 120.4E / 195-240 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 14.1N 129.8E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (HAGUPIT) HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY WHILE TURNING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AFTER
TAKING AN EQUATORWARD DIP DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 HOUR PERIOD.
RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
LOW LEVEL BANDING STRUCTURE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC)...(more)

>> HAGUPIT {pronounced: ha~goo~peet}, meaning: Lash; flog.
Name contributed by: Philippines.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 14.1N 129.5E / WNW @ 15 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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