Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS HAGUPIT (NINA) spares Bicol...eyes Northern Luzon... [Update #005]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005

Name: TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT [NINA/18W/0814]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 21 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #009
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (NINA) HAS TURNED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...THREAT

TO BICOL REGION DIMINISHES...EYES CAGAYAN-BATANES AREA.

*Residents along Isabela, Cagayan, Batanes & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of HAGUPIT
(NINA).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HAGUPIT is expected to track more to the NW for the

12 to 24 hours, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon later today. The 2 to 5-

day long-range forecast shows HAGUPIT returning back to its WNW track

on tomorrow morning, passing very close to the south of Batanes Island

on early Tuesday morning Sep 23 w/ projected wind speeds of 185 kph

(Category 3). It shall then move out into the South China Sea on Tues-

day evening, Sep 23. The typhoon shall be approaching the southern coast

of Guangdong Province of China, near Hong Kong-Macau area on Wednesday

evening Sep 24.

+ EFFECTS: HAGUPIT's large circulation remains over the Philippine Sea.

Its outer bands continues to affect the Bicol Region, Samar Provinces

and has spread across Eastern Luzon. Under these bands, the affected

areas will experience light to moderate rainfall w/ winds not excee-

ding 50 km/hr. Moderate to heavy Squalls associated with the outer

bands can be expected within its outer bands. People living around the

slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon -

especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mix-

ture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate

to heavy rains associated by this storm are likely to affect the area

beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must

remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash

floods & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about

by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The surge of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon
which has been enhanced by TS HAGUPIT (NINA) continues to Visayas in-
cluding Palawan & Mindoro. This wind system is expected to bring mostly
cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes
heavy rains & winds not exceeding 40 km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) SUN 21 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 15.9º N...LONGITUDE 127.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 465 KM (250 NM) NE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 565 KM (305 NM) NE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 620 KM (335 NM) EAST OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 4: 685 KM (370 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 725 KM (390 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN-BATANES AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 720 KM (390 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 18 FEET (5.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME SUN SEP 21
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, NAGA CITY, IRIGA CITY,
      CATANDUANES, ALBAY, LEGAZPI CITY, SORSOGON, NORTHERN SAMAR,
      WESTERN SAMAR, & EASTERN SAMAR.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 17.0N 126.9E / 120-150 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER: 18.0N 125.6E / 150-185 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 23 SEPTEMBER: 19.6N 122.0E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 24 SEPTEMBER: 20.8N 117.9E / 185-230 KPH / W @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.5N 128.2E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (HAGUPIT) HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT HAD TRACKED GENERALLY WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH
WEAKER BANDING EVIDENT WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS SLIGHTLY AMORPHOUS,
WHICH HAS MADE PINPOINTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LLCC
CHALLENGING...(more)

>> HAGUPIT {pronounced: ha~goo~peet}, meaning: Lash; flog.
Name contributed by: Philippines.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 15.5N 128.3E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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