Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon HAGUPIT (NINA) to pass over Extreme Northern Luzon this PM... [Update #007]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007

Name: TYPHOON HAGUPIT [NINA/18W/0814]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 22 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #013
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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HAGUPIT (NINA) NOW A 140-KPH CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON...DANGEROUSLY CLOSING

IN TO EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON...HEAVY SQUALLS WITHIN ITS RAINBANDS

AFFECTING CAGAYAN AND BATANES.

*Residents along Extreme Northern Luzon, Southern China & Taiwan should closely monitor the
progress of HAGUPIT (NINA).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HAGUPIT is expected to turn WNW to Westward today...

its core expected to pass over or very close to the South of Batanes

Island later tonight. The 2 to 4-day medium-range forecast shows HAGUPIT

moving into the South China Sea tomorrow morning, reaching Category 3

strength w/ winds of 185 kph. The typhoon shall be approaching the sou-

thern coast of Guangdong Province of China, near Hong Kong-Macau area

tomorrow night or early Wednesday morning (Sep 24)...making landfall

just west of Macau Wednesday afternoon. HAGUPIT shall dissipate along

Northern Vietnam on Friday Sep 26.

+ EFFECTS: HAGUPIT's large circulation remains over the Philippine Sea

w/ its core (eye + eyewall) moving closer to Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes

Islands. Its inner rainbands now spreading across Cagayan & Apayao...

while its outer bands has started moving across the whole of Northern

Luzon. Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall w/ winds not excee-

ding 60 km/hr can be expected along its outer bands with inceasing wind

speeds along its inner bands. Deteriorating weather conditions can be

expected this afternoon across Extreme Northern Luzon, as the core of

HAGUPIT passes by. 24-hr rainfall accumulations of up to 400 mm can be

expected along the inner bands and eyewall with isolated amounts reaching

500 mm especially along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas &

steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threa-

tening flash floods & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought

about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide

levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected

near and to the east of HAGUPIT's projected path particularly on where

the center passes by across Extreme Northern Luzon. Minimal damage is

possible on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The surge of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon
which has been enhanced by HAGUPIT (NINA) continues to affect Metro Manila,
Western & Southern Luzon including Bicol, Visayas, Palawan & Mindoro. This
wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-
off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding
40 km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) MON 22 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 19.0º N...LONGITUDE 124.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 285 KM (155 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 285 KM (155 NM) ESE OF CALAYAN IS., CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 280 KM (150 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 4: 305 KM (165 NM) NE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 850 KM (460 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME MON SEP 22
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - BATANES, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, APAYAO
      & ILOCOS NORTE.
#02 - ISABELA, KALINGA, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE & ILOCOS SUR.
#01 - AURORA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, PANGASINAN, IFUGAO, BENGUET,
      LA UNION, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, & QUIRINO.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER: 19.7N 122.5E / 165-205 KPH / WNW @ 22 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 23 SEPTEMBER: 20.4N 120.0E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 24 SEPTEMBER: 21.5N 114.6E / 160-195 KPH / W @ 22 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 22.0N 109.3E / 95-120 KPH / W @ 20 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 18.7N 124.7E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 18W (HAGUPIT) HAS SURPASSED TROPICAL STORM CLASSIFICATION
WITH AN ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. POSITION CONFIDENCE HAS
REMAINED SOMEWHAT POOR DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAR-CUT LOW LEVEL CIR-
CULATION CENTER AS OUTLINED BY THE SURROUNDING CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS.
NONETHELESS, PROMINENT SPIRAL BANDING HAS PERSISTED, ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY...(more)

>> HAGUPIT {pronounced: ha~goo~peet}, meaning: Lash; flog.
Name contributed by: Philippines.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER: 18.8N 124.0E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 160 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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