Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Powerful Typhoon SINLAKU (MARCE)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006

Name: TYPHOON SINLAKU [MARCE/15W/0813]

Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) THU 11 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #011
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON SINLAKU (MARCE) IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR

SYSTEM...YAEYAMA ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN IN
SERIOUS THREAT...OUTER BANDS STILL AFFECTING BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

*Residents along Eastern Taiwan, Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Island Chain & the Southern Coast of
Kyushu in Japan should closely monitor the progress of SINLAKU.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SINLAKU is expected to resume its slow Northerly to

NNW track, bringing the dangerous storm over Yaeyama Island Chain and

much closer to the east coast of Taiwan tomorrow night or early Satur-

day morning. SINLAKU is likely to reach Super Typhoon strength w/ winds

of 240 kph later this afternoon or tonight. The 3 to 5-day long-range

forecast shows SINLAKU recurving NNE to NE-ward beginning Sunday or

Monday towards the direction of SW Japan. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: Some
computer models are showing a possibilty that SINLAKU may track northwestward and make
landfall over NE Taiwan tomorrow or Saturday - instead of moving North or NNE. This scenario
is likely if the strong steering ridge to its east extends to its north.

+ EFFECTS: SINLAKU's strong circulation continues to swirl counter-

clockwise over the Northern Philippine Sea with its outer bands still

affecting the Batanes Group of Islands...spreading further across Yae-

yama Island Chain and the East Coast of Taiwan. Cloudy skies w/ at

times moderate to heavy squalls with winds not exceeding 60 km/hr can

be expected along these bands. Residents in low-lying areas & steep

slopes must seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods

& landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this

system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible

coastal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels

...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near

and to the north of SINLAKU's projected path. Extreme damage is possi-

ble on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to

be enhanced by TY SINLAKU (MARCE) across Western Luzon including Metro

Manila, Western Bicol, Southern Luzon, Mindoro, Western Visayas, & Pa-

lawan. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with

possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds

not exceeding 30 km/hr. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threa-

tening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano

slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected

areas. Meanwhile, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the whole Phili-

ppines. It shall bring widespread scattered rains and thunderstorms -
most especially in the afternoon or evening.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Tropical Storm 16W now moving NW over the
far Western Pacific Ocean about 385 km (208 nm) SSE of Tokyo, Japan
(32.8N 142.0E). Packing 1-min sustained winds of 65 kph. Based on its
forecast, this system will pass very close to the SE coast of Honshu
within 24 to 48 hours.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 11 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 21.2º N...LONGITUDE 124.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 270 KM (145 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 430 KM (232 NM) SE OF HUALIEN CITY, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 515 KM (278 NM) SSE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 4: 690 KM (373 NM) SW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 230 KM/HR (125 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 280 KM/HR (150 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 929 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: YAEYAMA ISLANDS
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 30 FEET (9.1 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME THU SEP 11
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.
#01 - NORTHERN CAGAYAN, BABUYAN & CALAYAN ISLANDS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 21.8N 124.6E / 240-295 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 22.7N 124.3E / 240-295 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 24.5N 123.6E / 230-280 KPH / NNE @ 09 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 26.4N 124.4E / 205-250 KPH / NE @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 21.0N 124.5E.
^RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT A PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR TYPHOON SINLAKU HAS DRAWN TO A CLOSE AS OF
101800Z. THE TYPHOON EXHIBITED AN IMPRESSIVE, SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE
INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED 14 NM EYE AT 110000Z. HOWEVER, SOME EROSION
OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL
HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TY 15W HAS DRIFTED GENERALLY
POLEWARD SINCE 101200Z IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A SLIGHLTY MORE DOMINANT STEER-
ING RIDGE TO THE EAST...(more)

>> SINLAKU {pronounced: seen~la~ku}, meaning: Kosrae legendary goddess.
Name contributed by: Micronesia.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 21.2N 124.5E / N @ 04 KPH / 175 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGOUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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