Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Powerful Typhoon HAGUPIT (NINA) makes landfall over Western Guangdong... [Update #011]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #011

Name: TYPHOON HAGUPIT [NINA/18W/0814]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 24 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #021
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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THE 65-KM EYE OF HAGUPIT (NINA) IS NOW MAKING LANDFALL OVER WESTERN

GUANGDONG, JUST EAST OF ZHANJIANG CITY. THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY GAINED

STRENGTH WITH 220 KPH WINDS...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
TYPHOON.

*Residents along Southern China especially Western Guangdong and Hainan Island should closely
monitor the progress of HAGUPIT (NINA).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HAGUPIT's powerful core is expected to cross Western

Guangdong this morning until tonight and shall weaken considerably into

a Category 1 typhoon due to land interaction and loss of warm moist air

from the ocean's heat energy. The 2-day short-range forecast shows

HAGUPIT moving into Northern Vietnam, passing just north of Hanoi to-

morrow, Sep 25 as a downgraded Tropical Storm. It shall dissipate along

Northwestern Vietnam-China border on Friday Sep 26.

+ EFFECTS: HAGUPIT's large circulation continues to cover the South China

Sea...Outer bands spreading across the southern coast of China including

Hainan Island...Inner bands expected to reach western Guangdong tonight.

Passing moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall w/ winds not exceeding 60

km/hr will be expected along its outer bands with inceasing wind speeds

of up to 100 kph over the inner bands. Deteriorating weather conditions

can be expected across Southern China and Hainan Island later tonight as

the inner bands and core of the large typhoon approaches. 24-hr rainfall

accumulations of 200 up to 400 mm can be expected along the inner bands

and near its eye with isolated amounts reaching 500 mm. Residents in low-

lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possi-

le life-threatening flash floods & landslides due to the anticipated heavy

rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initia-

ed if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet

above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves

can be expected near and to the east of HAGUPIT's projected path particu-

arly on where the center will make landfall over Western Guangdong.

Extensive damage is possible on this type of storm surge

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The

surge of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon
which has been enhanced by HAGUPIT (NINA) continues to affect Metro Manila,
Western & Southern Luzon including Bicol, Visayas, Palawan & Mindoro. This
wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-
off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding 50
km/hr.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The new & developing Tropical Disturbance 96W

(LPA/1004 MB) over the Caroline Islands, just North of Yap Island, has

consolidated rapidly, with spiral bands now seen on satellite imagery...

likely to become a Tropical Depression this morning...located near lat

11.5N lon 138.5E...about 380 km East of the Philippine Area of Responsi-

bility (PAR)...or about 1,425 km East of Borongan, Eastern Samar, Phili-

ppines...packing sustained winds of 40 km/hr...moving NW @ 13 kph towards

the Philippine Sea. Majority of the forecast models shows it becoming a

Typhoon heading towards Batanes-Taiwan area this coming weekend. Watch

for the initial advisory on this new disturbance today. Kindly click the

new & cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every 12 PM PST

(04 GMT)...it shows the current weather systems across the South

China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) WED 24 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 21.4º N...LONGITUDE 111.3º E {SatFix}
DISTANCE 1: 85 KM (45 NM) EAST OF ZHANJIANG CITY, CHINA
DISTANCE 2: 175 KM (95 NM) NE OF HAIKOU, HAINAN ISLAND, CHINA
DISTANCE 3: 255 KM (138 NM) WSW OF MACAU, CHINA

DISTANCE 4: 315 KM (170 NM) WSW OF HONG KONG, CHINA
DISTANCE 5: 1,115 KM (602 NM) WNW OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 220 KM/HR (120 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 270 KM/HR (145 KTS)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 13-18 FEET (4.0-5.5 M)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 933 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: WESTERN GUANGDONG, CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 775 KM (420 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 27 FEET (8.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME WED SEP 24
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 24 SEPTEMBER: 21.6N 109.5E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 22.1N 107.2E / 140-165 KPH / W @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 22.5N 103.6E / 35-55 KPH / .. @ ... KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 24 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 21.1N 112.4E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 18W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS WHILE TRACKING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CHINA COAST. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS INTENSE CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A LARGE, RAGGED 21 NM DIAMETER EYEWALL. THE 231038Z
85/37 GHZ SSMI IMAGES SHOWED A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH THE LARGEST
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN REGIONS OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY, BUT CONTINUES A STRONG PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST
UNDER ROBUST MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS RE-
MAINED EXCELLENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE MODEL TRACKERS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...(more)

>> HAGUPIT {pronounced: ha~goo~peet}, meaning: Lash; flog.
Name contributed by: Philippines.

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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