Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SINLAKU (MARCE) hits Northern Taiwan... [Update #010]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #010

Name: TYPHOON SINLAKU [MARCE/15W/0813]

Issued: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) SUN 14 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #022
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON SINLAKU (MARCE) HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN AROUND

MIDNIGHT (16:00 GMT)...NOW WEAKENING...EYEWALL AFFECTING METROPOLITAN

TAIPEI.

*Residents along SE China, Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Island Chain & the Southern Coast of Kyushu
in Japan should closely monitor the progress of SINLAKU.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SINLAKU's core will slice Northern Taiwan until

this afternoon, with its eye expected to pass over or very close to
Taipei in the next few hours, then shall turn slowly to the North,

exiting through the Northern Coast of Taiwan in the afternoon hours.

The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows SINLAKU recurving and acce-

lerating to an ENE track beginning Monday morning, bringing the ty-

phoon just to the north of Okinawa early Wednesday morning, Sep 17.

The typhoon is forecast to lose its strength, down to Tropical Storm

strength - as it passes south of Kyushu's coast in Japan on Thursday,

Sep 18.

+ EFFECTS: SINLAKU's eye has diminished over Satellite and Radar

imageries after making landfall along the terrain of Northern Taiwan

around midnight. Its intense eyewall continues to engulf the northern

part of Taiwan, bringing typhoon conditions along the area...its inner

bands affecting Central Taiwan, while the outer bands remains across

Taiwan Strait and along the coast of Southeastern China...and across

Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands. Cloudy skies w/ moderate to heavy

squalls with winds not exceeding 85 km/hr can be expected along its

outer bands, with increasing winds and more pronounce rainfall within

the inner bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of up to 200-400 mm can

be expected along these bands...with isolated 500 mm along the eyewall.

Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must seek evacuation for

possible life-threatening flash floods & landslides due to the antici-

pated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures

must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding

of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dange-

rous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of SINLAKU's

projected path particularly on where the center passes by over Northern

Taiwan. Extensive damage is possible on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY:

The Southwest (SW) Monsoon has weakened
as it continues to be enhanced by TY SINLAKU (MARCE) - across the
Western Coast of Luzon. This wind system is expected to bring mostly

cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes

heavy rains & winds not exceeding 30 km/hr. Landslides, mudflows

(lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along

steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone

areas of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) Sun 14 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 24.9º N...LONGITUDE 121.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 15 KM (08 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 2: 100 KM (55 NM) NORTH OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 490 KM (265 NM) NNW OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 4: 275 KM (150 NM) SE OF FUZHOU, CHINA

DISTANCE 5: 655 KM (355 NM) WSW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TW0 (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 956 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 775 KM (420 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 31 FEET (9.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SUN SEP 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
LIVE RADAR: CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU, TAIWAN
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: None

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 25.3N 121.6E / 160-195 KPH / N @ 07 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 26.0N 121.7E / 150-185 KPH / NNE @ 09 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 27.6N 123.7E / 140-165 KPH / ENE @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 28.5N 127.5E / 130-160 KPH / ENE @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 24.8N 121.8E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 15W HAS REINTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY AFTER UNDERGOING
REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS REINTENSIFICATION IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
METSAT IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTS IMPROVED OUTFLOW COUPLING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, AND WELL DEFINED INFLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE STORM
DESPITE INCREASED INTERACTION WITH LAND...(more)

>> SINLAKU {pronounced: seen~la~ku}, meaning: Kosrae legendary goddess.
Name contributed by: Micronesia.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 24.7N 121.8E / NNW @ 07 KPH / 140 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGOUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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