Bushman's Typhoon Blog: The gentle TS HIGOS (PABLO) crossed Bicol without a scar... [Update #003]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL STORM HIGOS [PABLO/21W/0817]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) WED 01 OCTOBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #008 [RELOCATED]
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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HIGOS (PABLO), THE FAST-MOVING AND GENTLE TROPICAL STORM THAT CROSSED

THE BICOL REGION LATE LAST NIGHT UNTIL EARLY THIS MORNING, LEFT NO

SCAR OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINIMAL FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY

RAINS WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION...THE SYSTEM IS NOW HEADING TOWARDS
METRO MANILA.

*Land based stations near the storm's path including T2K Weather Station shows a 1006 millibar
(hPa) surface, atmospheric pressure - suggesting that the system may have weaken rapidly to just

a mere Tropical Depression (TD) or a Tropical Disturbance (LPA). Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO)

8 AM analysis & PAGASA Manila reveals that HIGOS is a TD with 10-min avg sustained winds of 55

kph...this matches the 1-min average wind speed of 65 kph.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HIGOS is expected to move WNW to NW for the next

2 days and re-intensify. Its weak center shall cross Laguna and Metro

Manila this afternoon...and shall be along the coast of Bataan around

8 PM tonight. The 3 to 5-day long range forecast shows the system

cruising the South China Sea shifting its course to a northward path...

with wind strength of 120 kph (Category 1 Typhoon). HIGOS is forecast

to make landfall over Macau-Hong Kong area as a weakened Tropical Storm

on Monday morning, Oct 6th.

+ EFFECTS: HIGOS' compact circulation has started to reorganized while

over Calauag Bay in Quezon province..rainbands affecting Metro Manila,

Central Luzon, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Mindoro, Marinduque and Wes-

tern Bicol. Passing moderate to heavy squalls associated within its

rain bands...with wind gusts not in excess of 55 kph can be expected.

1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm is possible along the

core...with isolated accumulations of 200 mm near the center of HIGOS

especially along the mountain slopes of Central Luzon and Southern Ta-

galog Provinces. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must re-

main alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash

floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains

brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated

if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of up to 3 feet

above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous batte-

ring waves...is possible near the center of HIGOS. Very minimal damage

is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch: Check out the final advisory on another
TC over Japan...Tropical Storm JANGMI (OFEL)...passing to the southern
the coast of Japan. Click here to open & visit the page.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) WED 01 OCT 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.1º N...LONGITUDE 122.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 50 KM (27 NM) ESE OF MAUBAN, QUEZON, PH
DISTANCE 2: 70 KM (38 NM) ENE OF LUCENA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 85 KM (45 NM) WEST OF DAET, CAMARINES NORTE, PH

DISTANCE 4: 100 KM (55 NM) EAST OF LOS BAñOS, LAGUNA, PH
DISTANCE 5: 120 KM (65 NM) ESE OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1004 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: LAGUNA-METRO MANILA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 280 KM (150 NM)/SMALL
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 11 FEET (3.3 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 11 AM MANILA TIME WED OCT 1
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - METRO MANILA, CENTRAL LUZON, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA,

PANGASINAN, PAMPANGA, POLILLO, MARINDUQUE, NORTHERN MINDORO,

CATANDUANES, CAMARINES PROVINCES, BURIAS & ALBAY.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 14.6N 120.2E / 75-95 KPH / WNW @ 22 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 15.4N 117.8E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 17.7N 114.4E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 19.6N 113.1E / 120-150 KPH / N @ 05 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 01 OCTOBER POSITION: 13.9N 122.8E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) HIGOS (21W) HAS WEAKENED AS IT HAS ENCOUNTERED THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. THE PAST MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE STORM WAS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
NOW THAT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY IS AVAILABLE, TS 21W HAS BEEN RE-
LOCATED FURTHER EASTWARD. THE PAST 12 HOUR MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO
BE APPROXIMATELY 08 KTS...(more)

>> HIGOS, meaning: A Chamorro word for "Fig." Name contributed by:
United States of America.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 14.2N 123.0E / NW @ 17 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS HIGOS (PABLO)...go visit
our website @:

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> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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