Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS 22W (UNNAMED)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL STORM 22W [UNNAMED]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 15 OCTOBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #003
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM 22W (UNNAMED) NEWLY-FORMED OFF THE GULF OF TONKIN...

MOVING SLOWLY CLOSER TO NORTHERN VIETNAM'S COAST.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: TS 22W is expected to turn Westward while moving closer
to the coast of Northern Vietnam. The 12 to 24-hr forecast shows 22W making

landfall over Northern Vietnam this afternoon and shall dissipate in 36

hours over Laos.

+ EFFECTS: 22W's circulation has shrunked over the past 6 hours...its rain-

bands continues to bring moderate to heavy rainfall across Gulf of Tonkin

and Northern Vietnam...especially along the coast. 65 kph winds with higher

gusts can be expected in a very small area near the center of 22W. 1-day

rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm is possible along its rain

bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of 22W.

Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek eva-

cuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides

due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautio-

nary measures must be initiated if necessary.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM HONG KONG TIME (21:00 GMT) WED 15 OCT 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 19.5º N...LONGITUDE 106.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 195 KM (105 NM) SE OF HANOI, VIETNAM
DISTANCE 2: 205 KM (110 NM) WNW OF DONGFANG, HAINAN ISLAND

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 996 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN VIETNAM
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 11 FEET (3.3 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME WED OCT 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 36 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 36 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 OCTOBER: 19.6N 105.9E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 16 OCTOBER: 19.8N 104.4E / 45-65 KPH / W @ 13 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 16 OCTOBER: 19.9N 103.0E / 30-45 KPH / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 OCTOBER POSITION: 19.4N 107.1E.
^CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS LESS THAN 60 NM FROM THE COAST
OF VIETNAM, AND CONTINUES TO TRACK MORE OR LESS WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. A SMALL CDO CONTINUES TO FLARE OVER AND OBSCURE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LIMITING POSITION CONFIDENCE.
BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALL BUT DIMINISHED AND LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE HALTED FURTHER INTENSIFICA-
TION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 142229Z
QUIKSCAT PASS...(more)

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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