Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD HIGOS (PABLO) exits PAR...heads for Southern China... [Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HIGOS [PABLO/21W/0817]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 02 OCTOBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #013
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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HIGOS (PABLO), AFTER CROSSING SOUTHERN TAGALOG YESTERDAY HAS WEAKENED

CONSIDERABLY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...NOW OVER THE SOUTH CHINA

SEA AND WILL EXIT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HIGOS is expected to continue moving NW for the next

24 hours...intensifying slightly to minimal Tropical Storm strength. The

3 to 5-day long range forecast shows the system recurving NNE to NE-ward

...making landfall over Macau-Hong Kong area on Sunday evening, Oct 5th.

It shall then move inland across Eastern Gunagdong...dissipating along

Fujian Province on Oct 7.

+ EFFECTS: HIGOS' not-so-healthy circulation remains over the South China

Sea...its Easternmost outerbands no longer affecting Western Luzon.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) THU 02 OCT 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.2º N...LONGITUDE 116.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 420 KM (227 NM) WNW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 440 KM (237 NM) WEST OF SAN FERNANDO, LA UNION, PH
DISTANCE 3: 690 KM (372 NM) SE OF QIONGHAI, HAINAN ISLAND

DISTANCE 4: 710 KM (383 NM) SSE OF HONG KONG, CHINA
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 335 KM (180 NM)/SMALL/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME THU OCT 2
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 17.0N 114.9E / 65-85 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 18.1N 113.6E / 75-95 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 20.1N 112.8E / 95-120 KPH / NNE @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 21.9N 113.9E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 02 OCTOBER POSITION: 15.9N 116.6E.
^THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER
THE PHILIPPINES AND WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) ON
THE 01/18Z WARNING. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS POORLY-
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO CLEAR CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 012034Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK,
ELONGATED LLCC WITH LIMITED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND WEAKER CURVED BANDING NORTH. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRACK-
ING WESTWARD SLOWLY BUT THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
POSITIONING DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED STATE. THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED
INCONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN, NOGAPS AND ECMWF...(more)

>> HIGOS, meaning: A Chamorro word for "Fig." Name contributed by:
United States of America.
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PAGASA FINAL POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 16.0N 115.0E / WNW @ 20 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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