Sunday, October 16, 2016

Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 015


Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 015

Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Sunday 16 October 2016
Next Update: Monday Morning,  17 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) is now well over the West Philippine Sea as it continues to lose strength…moving on a fast westerly course towards Southern China.  It is then expected to leave the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on or before midnight tonight.

This typhoon is forecast to move west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 23 km/hr and will again intensify as it heads in the general direction of Hainan Island.

Where is Sarika (Karen)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 16...0900 GMT.  The eye was located just north of Scarborough Shoal (near 16.6N 117.7E), about 237 km west-northwest of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan or 288 km west of San Fernando City, La Union. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center...Gustiness: 155 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving Westward @ 30 kph, towards the South China Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.


Storm Surge Info


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Cruising westward across the South China Sea as it moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), intensifies...about 415 km east-southeast of Sanya, Hainan Island (China) [2PM OCT 17: 17.3N 113.2E @ 155kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it crosses Hainan Island, turns …about 67 km south of Danzhou, Hainan Island [2PM OCT 18: 18.9N 109.6E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Just along the coast of Northern Vietnam, prepares to make landfall over the area as it weakens further into a minimal Tropical Storm…about 146 km east-southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam [2PM OCT 19: 20.5N 107.1E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 590 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):95 km from  the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Oct 16, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.6º N Lat 117.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 438 km NW of Iba, Zambales 
Distance 2: 507 km WNW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 559 km W of Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 4: 514 km NW of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 1019 km NE of Hong Kong, China

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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