Saturday, October 15, 2016

Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 011


Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 011

Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Saturday 15 October 2016
Next Update: Sunday Early Morning,  16 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) still gaining strength as it starts a slight northwesterly jog, with increasing speed during the past 6 hours and dangerously closing in towards Aurora and Central Luzon.  Its western and southern rainbands are now beginning to spread across the whole of Luzon.

This typhoon is expected to move west-northwest with increasing forward speed of 26 km/hr and will make landfall along the coast of Southern or Central Aurora around or after midnight tonight with a probability of 80 to 90 percent.

Where is Sarika (Karen)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 15...0900 GMT.  The eye was located over the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.0N 123.2E), about 156 km north of Naga City, Camarines Sur or 193 km southeast of Baler, Aurora. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center...Gustiness: 190 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving Northwest @ 19 kph, towards Aurora.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Aurora, Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Islands, Eastern Nueva Ecija and Southern Quirino – beginningtonight until Sunday Morning (Oct 16).



Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of  1 to 7 meters (3 to 23 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Aurora, Northern Quezon, Polillo Islands, and Eastern Isabela  tonight through early Sunday morning (Oct 16).

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing the rugged terrain of Central Luzon…passing over the Scarborough Shoal...about 160 km west of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan [2PM OCT 16: 16.3N 118.3E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Re-intensifies after exiting the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on a fast, WNW track across the South China Sea…about 441 km east-southeast of Sanya, Hainan Island (China) [2PM OCT 17: 17.1N 113.4E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens as it makes landfall over the southern coast of Hainan Island (China)…about 21 km east of Sanya, Hainan Island [2PM OCT 18: 18.2N 109.7E @ 125kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 530 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):120 km from  the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Oct 15, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.0º N Lat 123.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 105 km NNE of Daet, Cam Norte 
Distance 2: 163 km ENE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 3: 178 km SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 233 km ENE of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 242 km ESE of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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