Saturday, October 15, 2016

Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 010


Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 010

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday 15 October 2016
Next Update: Saturday Evening, 15 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) has intensified further as it accelerates and moves generally westward, passing very close to the northern shores of Catanduanes. Its western rainbands are now starting to affect the eastern provinces of Central Luzon.

This typhoon is expected to move west-northwest with increasing forward speed of 25 km/hr in the general direction of Aurora-Quezon area. Sarika (Karen) is forecast to make landfall along the coast of Southern Aurora at around midnight tonight with probability of 80 to 90 percent.

Where is Sarika(Karen)?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 15...0300 GMT.  The center was located over the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.4N 124.1E), about 91 km north of Virac, Catanduanes or 71 km north-northeast of Caramoan, Camarines Sur. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center...Gustiness: 170 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving Northwest @ 5 kph, towards the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea, very close to the Northern Coast of Catanduanes.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Catanduanes – today.


::  Northeastern portion of Camarines Provinces –today.


The highest Wind Gust recorded was 106 kph at 12:30 PM today, Oct 15 in Baras, Catanduanes-Municipal Hall, based on WPF AWS data.

Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 7 meters (3 to 23 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Catanduanes and Camarines Provinces – today through this evening (Oct 15).


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY MORNING: Reintensifies over the West Philippine Sea after loosing strength when traversing the rugged terrain of Central Luzon…just off the western coast of Pangasinan...about 91 km west of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [8AM OCT 16: 16.2N 119.5E @ 140kph].Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

MONDAY MORNING: Maintains it strength as it leaves the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 619 km west of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [8AM OCT 17: 16.9N 114.6E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY MORNING: Approaches the southeastern coasts of Hainan and gains more strength…about 126 km east of Sanya City, Hainan Island [8AM OCT 18: 18.1N 110.7E @ 165kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 635 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):85 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat Oct 15, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.4º N Lat 124.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 227 km NNW of Catarman, Northern Samar 
Distance 2: 156 km N of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 145 km NNE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 129 km NE of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 332 km E of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.



No comments: