Friday, October 14, 2016

Tropical Storm SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 007


Tropical Storm SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 007

Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Friday 14 October 2016
Next Update: Saturday Early Morning, 15 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm SARIKA (KAREN) has maintained its strength while slowing down over the Central Philippine Sea. It has been wobbling Westward during the past 6 hours and remains a threat to Northern Samar, Bicol Region, Quezon, and Aurora.

This storm is forecast to move west-northwest within the next 24 hours at a slow speed of 08 km/hr. Sarika(Karen) is likely to become a Typhoon by Saturday morning [Oct 15].

Where is Sarika (Karen)?

As of 05:00 PM PhT today, October 14...0900 GMT. The center was located over the middle-part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.9N 126.2E), about 235 km northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar or 218 km east ofVirac, Catanduanes.

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 110 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West @ 09 kph, towards the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea, near the East Coast ofCatanduanes.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

Catanduanes and Eastern Camarines Sur- beginningSaturday morning until early evening (Oct 15).




Storm Surge Info


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Typhoon over water as it moves slowly west-northwest, moving pastCatanduanes...about 64 km north-northwest of Pandan,Catanduanes [2PM OCT 15: 14.6N 124.0E @ 130kph].Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Landfall in between the towns of Baler and Dingalan, Aurora or in the vicinity of MinganMountains early in the morning hours…weakens slightly as it races across Central Luzon…about 69 km west-southwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [2PM OCT 16: 15.9N 119.7E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Already cleared the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it regains its Typhoon strength over the South China Sea…about 625 km west of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2PM OCT 17: 16.6N 114.6E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]:495 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Fri Oct 14, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.9º N Lat 126.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 220 km E of Pandan, Catanduanes 
Distance 2: 257 km ENE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 278 km ENE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 326km E of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 568 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Adonis S. Manzan for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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