Thursday, October 06, 2016

Tropical Depression (JULIAN) Update Number 003


Tropical Depression (JULIAN) Update Number 003

Issued at: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Thursday 06 October 2016
Next Update: Thursday Morning, 06 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression JULIAN has slightly intensified as it resumes its fast motion towards the Batanes-Babuyan Islands Area…expected to pass across the Balintang Channel (in between Babuyan and Batanes Islands) early this morning.

This cyclone is forecast to decelerate once again with a slight turn towards the West within the next 24 hours at a speed of 25 km/hr, in the general direction of Batanes-Babuyan Islands Area.  JULIAN is likely to become a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves out of the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later  this afternoon (Oct 06).

Where is Julian?

As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, October 05…1500 GMT. The center was located over the northeastern part of the Balintang Channel (near 19.5N 123.2E), about 160 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 168 km southeast of Basco, Batanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West to West-Northwest @ 34 kph,towards the Batanes-Babuyan Islands Area.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

No damaging winds expected, as JULIAN remains a TD. Only moderate to heavy rains are expected within the next 12 to 24 hours across Batanes and Babuyan Island Group.




Storm Surge Info


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EVENING: Exits the PAR after traversing the Balintang Channel, Strengthens into a TS as it moves over the Northern part of the South China Sea....about 317 km northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM OCT 06: 19.8N 118.1E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

FRIDAY EVENING: Slows down further as it moves westward across the Northern part of the South China Sea…about 345 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [8PM OCT 07: 19.8N 116.3E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SATURDAY EVENING: Remains quasi-stationary while over the northern part of the South China Sea. Gains strength…about 332 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [8PM OCT 08: 19.4N 115.3E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 150 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 220 km (Midget)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Wed Oct 05, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.5º N Lat 123.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 206 km SE of Itbayat, Batanes 
Distance 2: 200 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 264 km NE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 309 km ENE of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
Distance 5: 600 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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