Thursday, October 06, 2016

Tropical Depression AERE (JULIAN) Update Number 004


Tropical Depression AERE (JULIAN) Update Number 004

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 06 October 2016
Next Update: Thursday Afternoon, 06 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression JULIAN now named internationally as "AERE" (a storm in U.S.A.) has accelerated and maintained its strength during the past 6 hours as it passed very close south of Batanes early this morning.

This cyclone is forecast to move generally to the West with decreasing forward speed of 21 km/hr within the next 24 hours, towards the northern part of the South China Sea, leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at around noontime today.

Where is Aere (Julian)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 06...2100 GMT.  The center was located over the mid-southern part of theBashi Channel (near 20.2N 121.1E), about 220 km north-northwest of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 99 km west-southwest of Basco, Batanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph

Where is it heading?

It was rapidly moving West-Northwest @ 39 kph,across the Batanes-Babuyan Islands Area.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

No damaging winds expected, as JULIAN is just a TD.



Storm Surge Info


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Moves generally west towards the northern part of the South China, maintaining its strength and leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 441 km west-northwest ofLaoag City, Ilocos Norte  [2AM OCT 07: 19.9N 116.8E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it turns slightly to the west-southwest…about 337 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [2AM OCT 08: 19.6N 115.4E @75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns sharply to the southwest as it slightly loses strength…about 381 km south of Hong Kong, China [2AM OCT 09: 19.0N 114.7E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 220 km (Midget)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu Oct 06, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 20.2º N Lat 121.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 212 km NNW of Aparri, Cagayan 
Distance 2: 294 km NNW of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 100 km SW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 228 km NNE of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
Distance 5: 619 km N of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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