Thursday, October 13, 2016

Tropical Depression (KAREN) Update Number 003


Tropical Depression (KAREN) Update Number 003

Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Thursday 13 October 2016
Next Update: Friday Early Morning, 14 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression KAREN has maintained its strength as it moves northwestward during the past 6hours, slightly increasing its forward speed…could threaten Northern Samar, Bicol, Quezon and Aurora Provinces this weekend.

This depression is forecast to move west-northwest slowly within the next 24 hours at a speed of 10 km/hr, and is likely to become a Tropical Storm (TS) late tonight or early Friday morning (Oct 14).

Where is Karen?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 13...0900 GMT.  The center was located over the mid part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.3N 129.0E), about 483 km east-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar or 520 km east ofVirac, Catanduanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving Northwest @ 16 kph, towards the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

None for the next 48 hours.




Storm Surge Info


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a TS as it moves slowly west-northwestward...about 324 km east of Virac,Catanduanes [2PM OCT 14: 13.8N 127.2E @ 85kph].Confidence Level:  HIGH.

SATURDAY ATERNOON: Rapidly becomes a Typhoon as it continues to move generally westward slowly, closer to Eastern Bicol…about 131 km east-northeast of Virac,Catanduanes [2PM OCT 15: 14.1N 125.3E @ 145kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens as it moves very close to the coast of Aurora…about 44 km south-southeast of Baler, Aurora [2PM OCT 16: 15.4N 121.8E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 640 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 13, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.3º N Lat 129.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 430 km ENE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar 
Distance 2: 540 km E of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 570 km E of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 630 km E of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 874 km E of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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