Thursday, October 13, 2016

Tropical Depression (KAREN) Update Number 002


Tropical Depression (KAREN) Update Number 002

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 13 October 2016
Next Update: Thursday Evening, 13 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

The Tropical Depression (TD) over the Central Philippine Sea has intensified slightly as it moves very slowly west-northwest and is now named locally as KAREN…could threaten Bicol and Samar Provinces this weekend.

This depression is forecast to move slowly northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 10 km/hr, and is likely to become a Tropical Storm (TS)  late tonight or early Friday morning (Oct 14).

Where is Karen?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 13...2100 GMT.  The center was located over the mid-southern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 12.5N 129.9E), about 575 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar or 629 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving very slowly, West-Northwest @ 05 kph,towards the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

None for the next  48 hours.




Storm Surge Info


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a TS as it moves slowly northwestward...about 443 km east of East of Virac, Caatanduanes [2AM OCT 14: 13.6N 128.3E @ 70kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly becomes a Typhoon as it turns slowly westward, closer to the coastal areas of Northern Samar and Eastern Bicol…about 227 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM OCT 15: 13.5N 126.3E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Still intensifying as it passes very close to the coast of Northern Catanduanes…about 70 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM OCT 16: 14.1N 124.6E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 595 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu Oct 13, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 12.5º N Lat 129.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 497 km ENE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar 
Distance 2: 642 km ESE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 677 km ESE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 736 km ESE of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 990 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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