Saturday, October 15, 2016

Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 009


Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 009

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday 15 October 2016
Next Update: Saturday Afternoon, 15 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

SARIKA (KAREN) has intensified into a Typhoon (TY) as it moves northwestward very slowly closer to the northern shores of Catanduanes. Its westernrainbands continue to affect Bicol Region including Samar Provinces and Southern Quezon.

This typhoon is expected to gain speed within the next 24 hours and shall move west-northwestward at a speed of 18 km/hr. Sarika (Karen) is forecast to pass close to the northern shores of Catanduanes and Camarines Provinces today.

Where is Sarika(Karen)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 15...2100 GMT.  The center was located over the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.2N 125.2E), about 127 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 152 km east-northeast of Caramoan, Camarines Sur. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center...Gustiness: 150 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving Northwest @ 5 kph, towards the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea, near the Northern Coast of Catanduanes.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Catanduanes – today.


::  Northeastern portion of Camarines Provinces –today.




Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 5 meters (3 to 16 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Catanduanes and Camarines Provinces – today  through the evening (Oct 15).


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further as it nears the shores of Southern Aurora...about 44 km southeast of Baler, Aurora [2AM OCT 16: 15.5N 121.9E @ 140kph].Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Reintensifies over the West Philippine after loosing strength when traversing the rugged terrain of Central Luzon. Just off the border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 467 km west of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [2AM OCT 17: 16.6N 116.0E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to gain strength over the South China Sea…about 269 km east-southeast of Sanya City, Hainan Island [2AM OCT 18: 17.4N 111.9E @ 165kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 560 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):120 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Oct 15, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.2º N Lat 125.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 206 km NNE of Catarman, Northern Samar 
Distance 2: 185 km NE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 196 km NE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 225 km ENE of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 453 km E of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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