Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Tropical Depression (JULIAN) Update Number 002


Tropical Depression (JULIAN) Update Number 002

Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Wednesday 05 October 2016
Next Update: Thursday Early Morning, 06 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

JULIAN has slowed down during the past 6 hours as it remains as a weak Tropical Depression.

This cyclone is forecast to move West-northwest with increasing forward speed of 30 km/hr within the next 24 hours, in the general direction of Batanes-Babuyan Islands Area.  JULIAN shall traverse the BalintangChannel, passing in between Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands by tomorrow morning (Oct 06) and could become a Tropical Storm (TS).

Where is Julian?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 05...0900 GMT.  The center was located over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.1N 125.1E), about 318 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 357 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 13 kph, towards the Batanes-Babuyan Islands Area.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

No damaging winds expected, as JULIAN is just a TD. Only moderate to heavy rains are expected within the next 24 hours across Batanes and Babuyan Island Group.




Storm Surge Info


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: About to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) through the northwestern border as it intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS)…about 299 km west-southwest of Basco, Batanes [2PM OCT 06: 19.9N 119.2E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Shifts to the west-southwest while maintaining its strength and slowing down over the northern part of the South China Sea…about 427 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM OCT 07: 19.4N 116.7E @65kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Remains a TS as it continues to move west-southwestward reducing further its forward speed across the northern part of the South China Sea…about 413 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM OCT 08: 18.9N 115.5E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 100 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 400 km (Midget)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed Oct 05, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.1º N Lat 125.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 374 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan 
Distance 2: 392 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 389 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 452 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 660 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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