Wednesday, October 19, 2016


Super Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 007

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (5:00 GMT) Wednesday 19 October 2016
Next Update: Wednesday Evening,  19 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

HAIMA (LAWIN) has slowed down during the past six hours and slightly weakened but remains as anExtremely Catastrophic Super Typhoon. It continues to move closer to Northern Luzon increasing its danger to the area especially the provinces of Isabela and Cagayan where it is expected to make landfall. Residents along its path are advised to take all necessary precautions.

This dangerous system is expected to move west-northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 26 km/hr towards Isabela-Cagayan Area, and shall traverse the regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos late this evening through Thursday morning.

Important Note:  Haima (Lawin) is comparable in track and strength of Super Typhoon Zeb (Iliang) which crossed Northern Luzon on October 14, 1998.

Where is Haima(Lawin)?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 19…0300 GMT. The eye was located over the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.3N 125.4E), about 327 km north-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 329 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 240 kph near the center...Gustiness: 295 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving Westward @ 23 kph, towards thenorthwesternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea.

Potential Landfall Area

Somewhere between Eastern Isabela and Eastern Cagayan, with a high Strike Probability of 80-90% late this evening or early Thursday morning (Oct 20), between 10:00 PM to 1:00 AM.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Northern Luzon – beginning this evening through Thursday (Oct 20).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+

:: Cagayan, Isabela and Northern Aurora – beginning this afternoon through Thursday (Oct 20).

+Large and dangerous battering waves and inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beachfront areas of the above provinces. 

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens as it traverses Isabela-Cagayan Area, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra and Ilocos Norte …about 34 km south-southwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte[8AM OCT 20: 17.9N 120.5E @ 145kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

FRIDAY MORNING: Regains a little strength as it approaches the coasts of Southeastern China in a northwesterly direction after moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 264 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [8AM OCT 21: 20.8N 116.0E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

SATURDAY MORNING: Turns to north-northwest and north as it weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) after making its final landfall along Guangdong Province…about 255 km north of Hong Kong, China [8AM OCT 22: 24.7N 114.1E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 855 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):155 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed Oct 19, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.3º N Lat 125.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 358 km NE of Daet, Camarines Norte 
Distance 2: 357 km E of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 373 km ESE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 417 km ESE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 506 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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