Saturday, October 15, 2016

Tropical Storm SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 008


Tropical Storm SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 008

Issued at: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Saturday 15 October 2016
Next Update: Saturday Morning, 15 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm SARIKA (KAREN) rapidly intensifying as it moves westward closer to the Bicol Region particularly Catanduanes.  Its western rainbands are now spreading across area including Samar Provinces.

This storm is expected to become a Typhoon within the next few hours and move west-northwest at a slow speed of 11 km/hr.

Sarika (Karen) is forecast to pass very close to the northern shores of Catanduanes between 7-9am  this morning…and shall be passing near the northern shorelines of Camarines Provinces this evening (at approx. 8-10pm).

Where is Sarika (Karen)?

As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, October 14...1500 GMT. The center was located over the middle-part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.0N 125.4E), about 127 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 185 km east of Caramoan, Camarines Sur. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center...Gustiness: 130 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West @ 14 kph, towards the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea, near the Northern Coast of Catanduanes.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Catanduanes – beginning this morning until the evening.


::  Northeastern portion of Camarines Provinces –beginning this noon until late in the evening.




Storm Surge Info


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EVENING: Becomes a Typhoon as it moves west-northwest across the western part of the Central Philippine Sea, passing close to the northern coastal areas of Camarines Sur and Norte...about 79 km northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte [8PM OCT 15: 14.7N 123.3E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SUNDAY EVENING: Emerging over the West Philippine and South China Seas after traversing Central Luzon…about 267 km west-northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [8PM OCT 16: 16.1N 117.8E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

MONDAY EVENING: Just outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), reintensifying while over the South China Sea…about 383 km southeast of Sanya City, Hainan Island [8PM OCT 17: 16.8N 112.8E @ 145kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 560 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):55 km from  the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri Oct 14, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.0º N Lat 125.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 188 km NNE of Catarman, Northern Samar 
Distance 2: 188 km NE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 204 km ENE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 242 km E of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 467 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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