Thursday, October 06, 2016

Tropical Depression AERE (JULIAN) Update Number 005


Tropical Depression AERE (JULIAN) Update Number 005

Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Thursday 06 October 2016
Next Update: Thursday Evening, 06 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression AERE (JULIAN) is still moving rapidly and is now about to exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

This cyclone is forecast to move West towards the northern part of the South China Sea at a normal speed of 20 km/hr within the next 24 hours away from the Philippines.

Where is Aere (Julian)?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 06...0300 GMT.  The center was located over the western part of the BashiChannel (near 20.6N 119.6E), about 251 km west ofBasco, Batanes or 286 km north-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 27 kph, towards the western part of the Bashi Channel.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.



Storm Surge Info


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves west towards the northern part of the South China…about 260 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [8AM OCT 07: 20.5N 115.6E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

SATURDAY MORNING: Intensifies further as it bends down sharply to southwest, reducing its speed…about 343 km south of Hong Kong, China [8AM OCT 08: 19.3N 113.9E @85kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

SUNDAY MORNING: Moves down more to south-southwest as it starts to lose strength…about 526 km south-southwest of Hong Kong, China [8AM OCT 09: 17.7N 113.3E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 100 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]:275 km (Midget)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu Oct 06, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 20.6º N Lat 119.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 328 km NW of Aparri, Cagayan 
Distance 2: 399 km NNW of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 234 km W of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 356 km NW of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 680 km NNW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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