Monday, October 17, 2016

Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 001


Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 001

Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Monday 17 October 2016
Next Update: Tuesday Morning,  18 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Powerful Typhoon HAIMA, locally known as LAWIN - is now entering the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…tracking West-Northwest across the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea. This cyclone is likely to threaten Northern Luzon within the next three days and residents along its path must take all necessary precautions.

This typhoon is expected to become a Super Typhoon tomorrow (Oct 18) and will continue to move  west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 26 km/hr across the mid-northern part of the Central Philippine Sea.

Where is Haima (Lawin)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 17...0900 GMT.  The eye was located along the easternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.5N 135.1E), about 1,143 km east-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar or 1,178 km east of Virac, Catanduanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 180 kph near the center...Gustiness: 225 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 19 kph, towards the middle part of the Central Philippine Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

None for the next 48 hours.

Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of  1 to 7 meters (3 to 23 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northeastern Luzon  beginning Wednesday afternoon through Thursday (Oct 20).

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a Super Typhoon as it moves across the mid-northern part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 697 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM OCT 18: 15.4N 130.5E @ 225kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches its peak strength as it moves west-northwest across the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea, approaching the eastern coasts of Isabela and Cagayan…about 289 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela [2PM OCT 19: 16.7N 125.1E @ 250kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Extreme Northern Luzon, via Northeastern Isabela-Cagayan-Apayao-Ilocos Norte…weakens to just below Super Typhoon strength…about 143 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM OCT 20: 18.8N 119.4E @ 215kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 835 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):120 km from  the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon Oct 17, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.5º N Lat 135.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 1234 km E of Legazpi City, Albay 
Distance 2: 1286 km E of Naga City, Cam Sur
Distance 3: 1429 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1496 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1514 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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