Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Super Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 005


Super Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 005

Issued at: 1:15 AM PhT (17:15 GMT) Wednesday 19 October 2016
Next Update: Wednesday Morning,  19 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

HAIMA (LAWIN) gained more strength and is now considered an Extremely Catastrophic Super Typhoonas it maintained its westerly course towards Northern Luzon, seriously endangering the provinces of Isabela and Cagayan. Residents along its path are advised beforehand to take all  necessary precautions.

This dangerous system is still expected to slighly intensify within the next 12 hours before it starts to weaken. It shall then resume its west-northwest path at a speed of 26 km/hr across the northwesternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea.

Important Note:  Haima (Lawin) is comparable in track and strength of Super Typhoon Zeb (Iliang) which crossed  Northern Luzon on October 14, 1998.

Where is Haima (Lawin)?

As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, October 18...1500 GMT. The eye was located along the mid-northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.7N 128.4E), about 514 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 656 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 240 kph near the center...Gustiness: 295 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving Westward @ 27 kph, towards the northwesternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea.

Potential Landfall Area

Somewhere between Eastern Isabela and Eastern Cagayan, with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Northern Luzon – beginning this evening through Thursday (Oct 20).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+

:: Cagayan, Isabela and Northern Aurora – beginning this afternoon through Thursday (Oct 20).

+Large and dangerous batttering waves and inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above provinces. 

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly after attaining its peak intensity of 250 km/hr, turns west-northwest as it moves closer to the eastern coastline of Northern Luzon…about 118 km east of Palanan, Isabela [8PM OCT 19: 16.9N 123.5E @ 240kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

THURSDAY EVENING: Over the South China Sea as it is about to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Weakens rapidly after crossing the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon…about 292 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM OCT 20: 19.1N 118.0E @ 170kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

FRIDAY EVENING: Weakens to a Tropical Storm as it makes its final landfall over Guangdong Province (Southern China), turns northwesterly…about 91 km north-northeast of Hong Kong, China [8PM OCT 21: 23.0N 114.4E @ 105kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 850 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):155 km from  the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Tue Oct 18, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.7º N Lat 128.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 617 km ENE of Daet, Cam Norte 
Distance 2: 676 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 723 km ESE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 744 km ESE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 805 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.



No comments: