Bushman's Typhoon Blog: October 2016

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Final Update

TYPHOON HAIMA (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 012 **FINAL**
Issued at: 7:15 PM PhT (11:15 GMT) Thursday 20 October 2016

Current Status and Outlook	Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) has moved out of the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it maintains its track and intensity while over the South China Sea. This typhoon is no longer a threat to the country, but its easternmost outer rainbands will still bring occasional rains and gusty winds across La Union and Ilocos Provinces today. *This is now the Final Update on this tropical cyclone.
Where is Haima (Lawin)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 20...1100 GMT. The center was located along northern part of the South China Sea (near 19.4N 118.2E), about 286 km northwest of Laoag City, Cagayan or 526 km southeast of Hong Kong, China.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center...Gustiness: 190 kph.
Where is it heading?	It was moving Northwest @ 21 kph, towards Southern China.
Potential Landfall Area	N/A.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* *Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.	None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	None
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Preparing to make landfall over Guangdong Province, Southern China…just a strong Tropical Storm…about 112 km east-northeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM OCT 21: 22.6N 115.2E @ 105kph].Confidence Level: HIGH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipates into an area of low pressure while moving northeastward across the inner part of Eastern China…about 126 km north-northeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM OCT 22: 27.4N 116.2E @ 30kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 450 mm [Moderate to Extreme] - Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa) - Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 865 km (Medium) - Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):150 km from the center.
Additional Distances	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 20, 2016 Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.4º N Lat 118.2º E Lon Distance 1: 306 km NW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur Distance 2: 416 km WSW of Basco, Batanes Distance 3: 471 km SSE of Shantou, China Distance 4: 570 km SE of Macao, China Distance 5: 626 km NNW of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 011

TYPHOON HAIMA (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 011
Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Thursday 20 October 2016
Next Update: Thursday Evening, 20 October 2016

Current Status and Outlook	HAIMA (LAWIN) has accelerated and is now about to move out from the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Its eastern outer rain bands are still affecting most parts of Northern Luzon. This typhoon is expected to slow down within the next 24 hours while turning to the northwest decreasing its speed to 15 km/hr. Unfavorable conditions along its path can cause this cyclone to gradually weaken.
Where is Haima(Lawin)?	As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 20…0300 GMT. The center was located over the northern portion of the West Philippine Sea (near 18.8N 119.2E), about 161 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte or 347 km west-southwest of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center...Gustiness: 190 kph
Where is it heading?	It was moving West-Northwest @ 32 kph, towards the northern portion of the South China Sea.
Potential Landfall Area	N / A.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* *Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.	:: Ilocos Region – until late this afternoon.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	FRIDAY MORNING: Turns northwest as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), and weakens over the South China Sea…about 345 km east-southeast of Hong Kong, China [8AM OCT 21: 20.7N 116.9E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) after making its final landfall over GuandongProvince, China…starts to re-curve…about 60 km east-northeast of Ganzhou City, China [8AM OCT 22: 26.0N 115.5E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. SUNDAY MORNING: Dissipates into an area of low pressure over Zhejiang Province, China as it completes its re-curvature…about 172 km northeast of Wenzhou City, China [8AM OCT 23: 29.2N 121.8E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme] - Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa) - Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 775 km (Medium) - Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):195 km from the center.
Additional Distances	Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu Oct 20, 2016 Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.8º N Lat 119.2º E Lon Distance 1: 298 km WNW of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan Distance 2: 173 km W of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte Distance 3: 185 km NW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur Distance 4: 304 km NNW of Baguio City, Benguet Distance 5: 503 km NNW of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph