Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MEKKHALA (AMANG) Update #012

for Saturday, 17 January 2015 [1:50 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MEKKHALA (AMANG) UPDATE NUMBER 012
Issued at: 1:45 PM PhT (05:45 GMT) Saturday 17 January 2015
Next Update: Saturday Evening, 17 January 2015

MEKKHALA (AMANG) has intensified into a Typhoon as it shifted its direction to Northwest towards the northern part of Eastern Samar...posing a serious threat to Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. The Potential Landfall Area of this storm will be somewhere along the northern shores of Eastern Samar between 2:00 to 5:00 PM today, Saturday (Jan 17).

This cyclone will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the eastern sections of Luzon through the weekend..

Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Mekkhala (Amang).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Samar Provinces, Northern Leyte incl. Tacloban City, Masbate incl. Ticao Is., Sorsogon, Albay incl. Burias Is., Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Camarines Norte, Eastern part of Southern Quezon, Eastern Capiz, Northeastern Iloilo, Northernmost part of Negros, Central part of Leyte and Biliran Is., and Northern Cebu incl. Camotes Islands - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Southern Leyte, Central part of Cebu, Central part of Negros, central part of Iloilo, rest of Capiz, Aklan, Northern Antique, Romblon incl. Tablas Is., Marinduque, eastern portions of Laguna and Rizal, central part of Quezon and rest of Quezon - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).

WINDS

Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Eastern Samar and the Eastern part of Northern Samar - until tonight (Jan 17).
- Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Rest of Samar and Northeastern part of Leyte - until tonight, Saturday (Jan 17).
- Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Central and Southern Bicol incl. Burias and Ticao Islands, Most parts of Leyte, Northernmost part of Cebu, and Romblon - This morning until tonight, Saturday (Jan 17)..
STORM SURGE
- Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1.2-1.7 m (4-5 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Samar and northeastern part of Northern Samar today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Rest of Eastern Visayas, Central and Southern Bicol incl. Burias and Ticao Islands, Northernmost parts of Cebu and Panay, and Romblon (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, Jan 17...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY Mekkhala (Amang)
Location: Over the western part of the Philippine Sea (near 11.6N 126.3E)
About: 100 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 145 km east-northeast of Tacloban City, Leyte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center...Gustiness: 150 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 50 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 900 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 55 km from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 20 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest to West-Northwest @ 17 kph
Towards: Eastern Samar

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Mekkhala (Amang) is expected to move northwestward to west-northwestward throughout the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TY Mekkhala (Amang) will be cruising along the western part of the Philippine Sea this morning...and will make landfall along the northern shores of Eastern Samar this afternoon. This evening, Mekkhala, after crossing Samar Island - shall emerge over Samar Sea...passing along the northern coasts of Masbate through Sunday morning. The storm will then pass close north of Romblon by Sunday afternoon...and shall be passing along the Cape Verde Passage on Sunday midnight through Monday morning.

TY Mekkhala (Amang) will weaken into a Tropical Storm after it makes landfall due to land interaction...and will rapidly weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD) during the remainder of the forecast outlook as it moves in an area of unfavorable environment. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 55 kph on Monday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm...over the northwestern tip of Masbate...about 55 km northwest of Masbate City [8AM JAN 18: 12.6N 123.2E @ 95kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Weakens further into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it passes along the Cape Verde Passage...about 60 km west-southwest of Tagaytay City [8AM JAN 19: 13.9N 120.5E @ 55kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Dissipates into an area of low pressure over the West Philippine Sea...about 90 km west-southwest of Iba, Zambales [8AM JAN 20: 15.0N 119.2E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat Jan 17, 2015
Location of Center: Near 11.6º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 95 km NE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 200 km ENE of Ormoc City
Distance 3: 190 km ESE of Calbayog City
Distance 4: 4295 km SE of Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 305 km ESE of Masbate City

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT UW-CIMSS/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MEKKHALA (AMANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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