Thursday, January 15, 2015



for Thursday, 15 January 2015 [8:23 PM PhT]


Issued at: 7:50 PM PhT (11:50 GMT) Thursday 15 January 2015
Next Update: Early Friday Morning, 16 January 2015

Tropical Storm MEKKHALA (AMANG) has maintained its strength and forward motion while over the eastern part of the Philippines...remains a threat to Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. The Potential Landfall Area of this storm will be somewhere along the shores of Eastern Samar between 2 to 5 PM on Saturday (Jan 17).

This cyclone will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the eastern sections of Luzon through the weekend..

Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Mekkhala (Amang).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.


  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Samar, Northeastern Leyte incl. Tacloban City, Eastern and Southern Bicol - beginning Friday evening (Jan 16) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Bicol Region Northeastern Panay, Northern Negros, Northern Cebu, Camotes Islands, Rest of Leyte incl. Biliran Island, and Surigao Del Norte incl. Dinagat and Siargao Islands - beginning Friday evening (Jan 16) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).


As of 5:00 PM PhT today, Jan 15...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS Mekkhala (Amang)
Location: Over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea (near 11.6N 132.9E)
About: 815 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 860 km east-northeast of Tacloban City, Leyte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 50 to 400 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 940 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 24 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 19 kph
Towards: Eastern Visayas


TS Mekkhala (Amang) is expected to move generally westward during the next 24 hours...and will maintain its forward motion throughout the remainder of the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TS Mekkhala (Amang) will be cruising along the central to the mid-western part of the Philippine Sea on Friday through Saturday morning...and will be just along the eastern shores of Eastern Samar, just north of Borongan City on Saturday afternoon.

TS Mekkhala (Amang) will slowly strengthen throughout the forecast outlook. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 85 kph by Friday afternoon.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens slowly as it moves west across the Central Philippine Sea...about 425 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM JAN 16: 11.5N 129.3E @ 75kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches the shores of Eastern Visayas with added intensity as it prepares to make landfall...about 35 km northeast of Borongan City [2PM JAN 17: 11.8N 125.7E @ 85kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly while over Romblon-Tablas Area, after crossing Masbate and Samar Provinces...about 45 km north of Romblon [2PM JAN 18: 13.0N 122.3E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Jan 15, 2015
Location of Center: Near 11.6º N Lat 132.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 765 km ENE of Siargao Island
Distance 2: 790 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 3: 910 km ESE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 4: 970 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 980 km ESE of Sorsogon City









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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