Wednesday, January 14, 2015

TD 01W (UNNAMED) Update #001


for Wednesday, 14 January 2015 [9:00 AM PhT]


Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Wednesday 14 January 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Evening, 14 January 2015

The broad and strong disturbance (LPA 92W) over the western part of the Caroline Islands eventually strengthened into Tropical Depression 01W (Unnamed). This weak cyclone is currently approaching Western Micronesia and could pose a threat to Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region this weekend...forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning (Thursday).

This cyclone will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the eastern sections of Luzon through the weekend..

Residents and visitors along Mindanao, Visayas and Southern Luzon should closely monitor the development of 01W (Unnamed).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 48 hours.


As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Jan 14...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TD 01W (Unnamed)
Location: Over Western Micronesia (near 9.6N 140.4E)
About: 250 km east of Yap Island...or 1,565 km east of Siargao Island
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 985 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 18 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 25 kph
Towards: Western Micronesia-Philippine Sea Area


TD 01W (Unnamed) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward during the next 24 hours...bending westward throughout the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TD 01W will pass well north of Yap Island later this afternoon and shall enter the PAR late Thursday morning. By early Friday morning, 01W shall be cruising along the eastern part of the Philippine Sea.

TD 01W (Unnamed) will continue to intensify throughout the forecast outlook. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 75 kph by early Friday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it is about to enter PAR...about 1,145 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM JAN 15: 11.5N 135.9E @ 65kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to strengthen as bends westward across the eastern part of the Philippine Sea...about 815 km east-northeast of Borongan City [2AM JAN 16: 12.0N 132.9E @ 75kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Still intensifying over the western part of the Philippine Sea...maintains its westerly course towards Samar...about 425 km east-northeast of Borongan City [2AM JAN 17: 11.9N 129.3E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Jan 14, 2015
Location of Center: Near 9.6º N Lat 140.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 590 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 645 km SW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 695 km ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1615 km ESE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 5: 1635 km E of Surigao City









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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